665
FXUS61 KBGM 150749
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
945 PM UPDATE...
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM WERE
THE MAIN FOCUS. CURRENT OBS WERE RUNNING LOWER THAN PROJECTED
ACROSS WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHILE AREAS AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
AND SYRACUSE METRO WERE RUNNING WARMER SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
ACCORDINGLY.
645 PM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AT THIS TIME, MAINLY TO LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT, SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE OVERALL
ON TEMPERATURES, AND BASED ON HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES FELL
THIS MORNING, LOWS WERE TAKEN DOWN A LITTLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS AND INTO ONEIDA COUNTY. LOCATIONS AROUND THE
IMMEDIATE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SYRACUSE METRO WERE RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROJECTED, SO THIS WILL BE ONE AREA TO WATCH TONIGHT
WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE.
250 PM UPDATE...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO SUNDAY. THIS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE WITH HOW OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START PUSHING IN ALOFT ON
SUNDAY, DRY AND COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AT THE SURFACE
DUE TO THAT HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE STATIONED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION WILL TRY OVERRUNNING THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO BE
TOUGH TO OVERCOME. THIS WILL ALLOW EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 IN SOME AREAS
ACROSS NE PA, INCLUDING THE POCONOS REGION TOMORROW EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE
ALOFT TRYING TO TAKE HOLD, BUT AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN
INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT, WET BULBING KEEPS TEMPERATURE PROFILES
AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE COLUMN, SO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW AT THE ONSET IN NE PA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WARMER AIR
WILL START WINNING OUT AND PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY
BECOME A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN MONDAY MORNING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR ALL OF OUR NE PA
ZONES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT ICING IN SOME AREAS.
FURTHER NORTH IN NY, THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT DUE TO HIGHER END AMOUNTS NEEDED TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE UNCERTAINTY FOR FREEZING RAIN, IT WAS
DECIDED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. IF
FURTHER UPDATES SHOW A GREATER ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO CENTRAL NY, THEN ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME TIME TO SORT THIS OUT, AS ONSET TIME
FOR PRECIPITATION IN NY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BUT INDICATIONS ARE
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1/4TH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR
SO. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STAY STEADY THE 40'S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TEMPERATURES STILL STAYING RATHER STEADY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF INTERVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE 20'S HIGHS SHOULD NUDGE INTO
THE 40'S WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOWERING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LONGER DURATION EVENT. STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
PRESENT FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO
THE 20'S AGAIN AS A RESULT.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AS
WELL, LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
HAS A CLOSE CALL WITH A MILLER B COASTAL. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY TRENDING AWAY FROM A EAST COAST STORM BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HAVE THE MONITOR THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION TO SEE
IF AND WHERE AND IF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OCCURS.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHED. CIGS BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 21-24Z SUNDAY AS LIGHT SNOW
QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION. MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST, IMPACTING TERMINALS STARTING BETWEEN 21-23Z SUNDAY.
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE BETWEEN 8-15 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, CHANGING TO MOSTLY RAIN MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BETTER CHANCES OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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