399
FXUS61 KBGM 151917
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
217 PM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. THE
PATTERN WILL STAY ACTIVE THIS WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK, BUT COMPLEX WINTER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH
TEMPERATURES AND P-TYPES, WHICH WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NE U.S. OVER
THE LAST 48 HOURS IS KEEPING COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOME VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, AS
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TRIES PUSHING IN, IT WILL HIT THIS
WEDGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ALL BACK BELOW
FREEZING AND ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 4 TO 8 PM TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE THERMAL
PROFILES DON'T QUITE GET WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR FZRA AND THEY
STAY ALMOST ISOTHERMAL AROUND -1C TO +1C IN THAT WARMER LAYER.
SO WITH THIS UPDATE, THERE IS LESS ICE IN THE FORECAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW DUE TO THE DEPTH AND TEMPERATURE OF THAT WARM
LAYER ALOFT POSSIBLY BEING TOO COLD FOR THE ICE CRYSTALS TO
COMPLETELY MELT. WITH THAT SAID SAID THOUGH, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOWHERE NEAR PERFECT AND WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX, EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON P-TYPES AND WHEN/IF A CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.
DECIDED TO NOT EXPAND UPON THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME THOUGHT OF ADDING SULLIVAN
COUNTY IN NY, BUT FOR NOW, THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY
REMAINS JUST BELOW THE 4" SNOWFALL ADVISORY CRITERIA. NE PA IS
IN AN ADVISORY MOSTLY BECAUSE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD IS LOWER
(3") AND THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 3" ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. FURTHER NORTH IN NY, THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 4" AND
SINCE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ISN'T WIDESPREAD, IT WAS
DECIDED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. IF
FURTHER UPDATES SHOW A GREATER ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO CENTRAL NY LATER TONIGHT, THEN
ADDITIONAL SHORT-FUSE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT
UNFOLDS.
BY MID TO LATE MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING ALMOST EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS
IN THE CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION, WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING ON WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MOST OF
THE AREA CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
A FAIRLY QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR A ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODEL QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BUT INDICATIONS ARE
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1/4TH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR
SO. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO STAY STEADY THE 40'S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
TEMPERATURES STILL STAYING RATHER STEADY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF INTERVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE 20'S HIGHS SHOULD NUDGE INTO
THE 40'S WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOWERING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LONGER DURATION EVENT. STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
PRESENT FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD
AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO
THE 20'S AGAIN AS A RESULT.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AS
WELL, LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
HAS A CLOSE CALL WITH A MILLER B COASTAL. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY TRENDING AWAY FROM A EAST COAST STORM BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEKEND. WILL HAVE THE MONITOR THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION TO SEE
IF AND WHERE AND IF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OCCURS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
AFTER THAT, CEILINGS LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA AS
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
LIGHT SNOW QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MVFR
VSBYS DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST. IFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY CEILINGS CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SNOWFALL INTENSIFIES TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION TOMORROW MORNING , BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH EXACT TIMING CHANGEOVER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MPK
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