582
FXUS61 KBGM 160538
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA. THE PATTERN
WILL STAY ACTIVE THIS WEEK, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1015 PM UPDATE...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST UPDATE, CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WERE RUNNING A LITTLER HIGHER THAN PROJECTED, SO DID RAISE BOTH
THROUGH 12Z. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MINOR POP
CHANGES MADE THROUGH MIDDAY AS THE PREVIOUS ADJUSTMENTS EARLIER
THIS EVENING REMAIN ON TRACK. POPS WERE LOWERED THOUGH FOR THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CNY AND PORTIONS OF NE PA
WHERE (AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED MORE IN FUTURE UPDATES) AS
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVING IN TOMORROW EVENING HAS BEEN
TRENDING SLOWER AND MAY HOLD OFF REACHING FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
640 PM UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED AS OF THIS UPDATE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NY BASED ON REPORTS OF ICING THAT OCCURRED
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS STEUBEN COUNTY, AND THIS
CAN CONTINUE FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER TERRAIN. LOOKING AT CC
VALUES ON RADAR, MIXED PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S. AS A RESULT, FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN EXPANDED UPON IN THE
HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS CNY THIS EVENING BEFORE A CHANGEOVER
TO ALL FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TOMORROW AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO TAPER OFF AND COME TO AN END FOR A TIME IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 10-12Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
OR SPOTTY DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE PA, FROM
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY THROUGH PIKE COUNTY, SO POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALSO BEEN ADDED TO
TOMORROW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE AREA WHERE THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A WEAK, BUT COMPLEX WINTER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH
TEMPERATURES AND P-TYPES, WHICH WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL OCCURS OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NE U.S. OVER
THE LAST 48 HOURS IS KEEPING COLD AIR LOCKED IN AT THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOME VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, AS
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TRIES PUSHING IN, IT WILL HIT THIS
WEDGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ALL BACK BELOW
FREEZING AND ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 4 TO 8 PM TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COLDER WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE THERMAL
PROFILES DON'T QUITE GET WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR FZRA AND THEY
STAY ALMOST ISOTHERMAL AROUND -1C TO +1C IN THAT WARMER LAYER.
SO WITH THIS UPDATE, THERE IS LESS ICE IN THE FORECAST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW DUE TO THE DEPTH AND TEMPERATURE OF THAT WARM
LAYER ALOFT POSSIBLY BEING TOO COLD FOR THE ICE CRYSTALS TO
COMPLETELY MELT. WITH THAT SAID SAID THOUGH, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOWHERE NEAR PERFECT AND WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX, EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON P-TYPES AND WHEN/IF A CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR.
DECIDED TO NOT EXPAND UPON THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME THOUGHT OF ADDING SULLIVAN
COUNTY IN NY, BUT FOR NOW, THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY
REMAINS JUST BELOW THE 4" SNOWFALL ADVISORY CRITERIA. NE PA IS
IN AN ADVISORY MOSTLY BECAUSE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD IS LOWER
(3") AND THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 3" ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. FURTHER NORTH IN NY, THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 4" AND
SINCE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ISN'T WIDESPREAD, IT WAS
DECIDED THAT AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. IF
FURTHER UPDATES SHOW A GREATER ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO CENTRAL NY LATER TONIGHT, THEN
ADDITIONAL SHORT-FUSE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS EVENT
UNFOLDS.
BY MID TO LATE MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE
FREEZING ALMOST EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHELTERED LOCATIONS
IN THE CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION, WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING ON WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MOST OF
THE AREA CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER THIS UPDATE WITH
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR MASS STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEAST PA, OTHERWISE WITH WESTERLY FLOW, CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
OVER CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO KICK OFF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THROUGH A SATURATED DGZ LAYER AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 12K
FEET WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST OVER THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY
FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CAA. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN BY FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN
HOW EXACTLY THIS WILL UNFOLD. GFS IS THE DRIER SOLUTION WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF OUR REGION. ECMWF AND CANADIAN
HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY, BUT IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFF
SHORE. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A LAKE EFFECT
SET UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF SNOW, MIXED OCCASIONALLY WITH RAIN, SLEET AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH 06-09Z MONDAY MORNING, CAUSING A VARIETY OF
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MOST TAF SITES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FUEL ALTERNATE AND EVEN IFR OR LIFR AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IS AT ITH,
BGM AND RME. VISIBILITIES LIKELY IMPROVE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AFTER 06-09Z AS THE STEADY MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW EXIT THE AREA.
AFTER THIS THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE OR MIST AROUND AND CIGS
REMAIN BETWEEN 008 AND 015 FT AGL MONDAY MORNING; EXCEPT MVFR
AROUND 025 FT AGL AT SYR. CIGS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTER
15-18Z IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT BGM, AVP, ELM AND
ITH, WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LIFR CIGS...RME AND SYR SETTLES
INTO MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE. FOG DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF AVP
OVER THE POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS MONDAY. STEADY RAIN MOVES BACK
IN FROM THE WEST STARTING AROUND 00/01Z.
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT BGM, ELM, ITH, AVP AND POSSIBLE
AT RME. MVFR AT SYR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ015>017-022>025.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...KL/MJM
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