766
FXUS61 KBGM 160832
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE PATTERN WILL STAY ACTIVE THIS WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUING MOVING
EASTWARD AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER AROUND NE PA THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT CAUSED YESTERDAY'S PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF LAND INTO THE
ATLANTIC, JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY, WITH SE FLOW FROM
THE DISTURBANCE HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH, BUT AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION MAY RECEIVE
LESS, AND THE CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY RECEIVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WITH THE WARM LAYER BEING THICK, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL
MAINTAINING ABOVE FREEZING POST-FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES, BEFORE
WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER, ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN
WIDEPSREAD RAINFALL WILL SUBSIDE, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO FORM SOME LAKE-EFFECT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER THIS UPDATE WITH
THE COLDEST PORTION OF THE AIR MASS STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
DURING THE DAY. A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEAST PA, OTHERWISE WITH WESTERLY FLOW, CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
OVER CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT TO KICK OFF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S BY THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THROUGH A SATURATED DGZ LAYER AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 12K
FEET WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AT LEAST OVER THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY
FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING POSSIBLY
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CAA. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY PERIOD
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN BY FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN
HOW EXACTLY THIS WILL UNFOLD. GFS IS THE DRIER SOLUTION WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF OUR REGION. ECMWF AND CANADIAN
HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP
THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY, BUT IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFF
SHORE. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A LAKE EFFECT
SET UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS POTENTIALLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PERIODS OF SNOW, MIXED OCCASIONALLY WITH RAIN, SLEET AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH 06-09Z MONDAY MORNING, CAUSING A VARIETY OF
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. MOST TAF SITES WILL LOWER TO MVFR
FUEL ALTERNATE AND EVEN IFR OR LIFR AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IS AT ITH,
BGM AND RME. VISIBILITIES LIKELY IMPROVE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AFTER 06-09Z AS THE STEADY MIXED PRECIP AND SNOW EXIT THE AREA.
AFTER THIS THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE OR MIST AROUND AND CIGS
REMAIN BETWEEN 008 AND 015 FT AGL MONDAY MORNING; EXCEPT MVFR
AROUND 025 FT AGL AT SYR. CIGS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW. AFTER
15-18Z IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT BGM, AVP, ELM AND
ITH, WITH POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LIFR CIGS...RME AND SYR SETTLES
INTO MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE. FOG DEVELOPS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF AVP
OVER THE POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS MONDAY. STEADY RAIN MOVES BACK
IN FROM THE WEST STARTING AROUND 00/01Z.
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT BGM, ELM, ITH, AVP AND POSSIBLE
AT RME. MVFR AT SYR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...KL/MJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page