227
FXUS61 KBGM 161134
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
634 AM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE PATTERN WILL STAY ACTIVE THIS WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUING MOVING
EASTWARD AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER AROUND NE PA THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT CAUSED YESTERDAY'S PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF LAND INTO THE
ATLANTIC, JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY, WITH SE FLOW FROM
THE DISTURBANCE HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH, BUT AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION MAY RECEIVE
LESS, AND THE CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY RECEIVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WITH THE WARM LAYER BEING THICK, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL
MAINTAINING ABOVE FREEZING POST-FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES, BEFORE
WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER, ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN
WIDEPSREAD RAINFALL WILL SUBSIDE, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO FORM SOME LAKE-EFFECT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF INTERVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START NEAR 30, HIGHS SHOULD GET WELL INTO
THE 40'S WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE ACTUALLY DIVERGED MORE THIS CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. HOWEVER, LEANED AWAY FROM THE
WETTER FURTHER NORTH OPERATIONAL GFS. GIVEN TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND FREEZING NOT MUCH HELP WILL
COME FROM EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO DROP THE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH
FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO SWEEP IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLY ENDING
AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL, WITH VALLEYS MAY ONLY SEE A FEW
FLAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20'S AND LOW 30'S AGAIN BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT, A FEW LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE LATER IN THE DAY.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BUT LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LAKE MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL. THE MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SHOT OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY MODELED TO COME SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET INTO THE 20'S SATURDAY AND 10'S ON SUNDAY.SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DID NOT TREND THAT COLD FOR NOW
BUT DID GO ON THE COLDER END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IF IT DOES SNOW
THIS WEEKEND THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW COVER MAKES IT TO CHRISTMAS
GIVEN HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TILL THE 25TH.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS BLANKETED THE AREA, CAUSING MVFR/FUEL ALT
CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS, WITH BGM THE EXCEPTION WITH IFR
CEILINGS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND
WORSEN AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS AROUND 00Z-02Z, AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THAT WILL DETERIORATE VSBYS TO MVFR, WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR.
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY MODERATE IN REGARDS TO CIGS AND VSBYS,
AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENTLY WORSE CONDITIONS THAT
OBSERVATIONS AFTER YESTERDAY'S PRECIPITATION HAD TAPERED OFF.
THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE IN BGM'S CONDITIONS AFTER 17Z, WHERE
GUIDANCE'S CONDITIONS SHOW TO WORSEN TO LIFR, BUT HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT, SO WE KEPT LIFR CIGS STARTING AT 17Z AND THROUGH THE
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN. WE'LL KEEP MONITORING BGM'S TRENDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. IFR/LIFR LIKELY AT BGM, ELM, ITH, AVP AND POSSIBLE
AT RME. MVFR AT SYR. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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