915
FXUS61 KBGM 161717
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1217 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE PATTERN WILL STAY ACTIVE THIS WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
CURRENT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUING MOVING
EASTWARD AND TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER AROUND NE PA THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT CAUSED YESTERDAY'S PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF LAND INTO THE
ATLANTIC, JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY, WITH SE FLOW FROM
THE DISTURBANCE HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY, BEFORE A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH, BUT AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION MAY RECEIVE
LESS, AND THE CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY RECEIVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WITH THE WARM LAYER BEING THICK, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL
MAINTAINING ABOVE FREEZING POST-FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES, BEFORE
WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER, ALLOWING FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN
WIDEPSREAD RAINFALL WILL SUBSIDE, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO FORM SOME LAKE-EFFECT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF INTERVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START NEAR 30, HIGHS SHOULD GET WELL INTO
THE 40'S WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE ACTUALLY DIVERGED MORE THIS CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. HOWEVER, LEANED AWAY FROM THE
WETTER FURTHER NORTH OPERATIONAL GFS. GIVEN TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND FREEZING NOT MUCH HELP WILL
COME FROM EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO DROP THE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH
FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO SWEEP IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLY ENDING
AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL, WITH VALLEYS MAY ONLY SEE A FEW
FLAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20'S AND LOW 30'S AGAIN BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT, A FEW LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE LATER IN THE DAY.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BUT LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LAKE MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL. THE MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SHOT OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY MODELED TO COME SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET INTO THE 20'S SATURDAY AND 10'S ON SUNDAY.SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DID NOT TREND THAT COLD FOR NOW
BUT DID GO ON THE COLDER END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IF IT DOES SNOW
THIS WEEKEND THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW COVER MAKES IT TO CHRISTMAS
GIVEN HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TILL THE 25TH.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, AND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
DETERIORATE VSBYS TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THERE
IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS TONIGHT AT ITH, ELM
AND AVP. BGM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE THE IFR OR WORSE
CEILINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL OF TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT OR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT ON TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MPK
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