994
FXUS61 KBGM 161920
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
STAY ACTIVE THIS WEEK, AND ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND NOON,
BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE, AND THE BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN OUR AREA WILL ONLY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH ACROSS ONEIDA
COUNTY.
COLD AIR ON WESTERLY FLOW WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM
SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY
AS RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING BACK IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
CUTTING OFF THE LAKE MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF INTERVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START NEAR 30, HIGHS SHOULD GET WELL INTO
THE 40'S WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE ACTUALLY DIVERGED MORE THIS CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO THE
LOCATION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW. HOWEVER, LEANED AWAY FROM THE
WETTER FURTHER NORTH OPERATIONAL GFS. GIVEN TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND DEWPOINTS AROUND FREEZING NOT MUCH HELP WILL
COME FROM EVAPORATIONAL COOLING TO DROP THE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH
FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO SWEEP IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST POSSIBLY ENDING
AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL, WITH VALLEYS MAY ONLY SEE A FEW
FLAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20'S AND LOW 30'S AGAIN BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT, A FEW LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE LATER IN THE DAY.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED BUT LIFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LAKE MOISTURE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER CHANCES IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WELL. THE MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SHOT OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY MODELED TO COME SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE
TO GET INTO THE 20'S SATURDAY AND 10'S ON SUNDAY.SINGLE DIGIT LOWS
ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS WELL. DID NOT TREND THAT COLD FOR NOW
BUT DID GO ON THE COLDER END OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IF IT DOES SNOW
THIS WEEKEND THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW COVER MAKES IT TO CHRISTMAS
GIVEN HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TILL THE 25TH.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, AND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
DETERIORATE VSBYS TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THERE
IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS TONIGHT AT ITH, ELM
AND AVP. BGM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE THE IFR OR WORSE
CEILINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL OF TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT OR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT ON TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page