524
FXUS61 KBGM 162006
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
306 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
STAY ACTIVE THIS WEEK, AND ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND NOON,
BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE, AND THE BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN OUR AREA WILL ONLY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH ACROSS ONEIDA
COUNTY.
COLD AIR ON WESTERLY FLOW WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM
SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY
AS RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING BACK IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
CUTTING OFF THE LAKE MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE...
WEDNESDAY STARTS OFF DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OUT AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE, OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW AND WILL
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NICE WARM NOSE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. THIS LIMITS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS MUCH OF THE LOWER
COLUMN IS SATURATED, SO THE MAIN P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING
SNOW STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING FROM 1C IN THE MORNING TO -10C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
WILL PUSH THIS COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES, KICKING OFF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONTAINED NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, BUT FEW ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THIS REGION. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE NW FLOW, CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S, AND WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING IN THESE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME,
WITH 1-2 INCHES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE LAKE EFFECT ENGINE SHOULD SHUT OFF BE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE WESTERLY AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. COLDER CANADIAN AIR
WILL STICK AROUND, WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO LOW
TOP MID 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
245 PM UPDATE...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY, BUT STRENGTH
AND TIMING STILL REMAIN UNCLEAR. THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN
SHOWS MORE FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION WHERE THE JET STREAM IS
SET UP, SO ANY LOW THAT DOES PASS THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD BE
WEAK AND MAY EVEN SHUNT ITS ENERGY OFF THE COAST AND DEVELOP A
LOW OVER THE OCEAN. IF PRECIP DOES FALL, IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.
A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL FILL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM, KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK OFF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THE FLOW DIRECTION IS NOT OPTIMAL
FOR STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS, 850MB TEMPS IN THE -20CS
WILL DEFINITELY GENERATE SOME STRONGER CELLULAR SHOWERS PASSING
OVER CNY SAT INTO SUN AM.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, AND THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
DETERIORATE VSBYS TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH PERIODS OF IFR. THERE
IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS TONIGHT AT ITH, ELM
AND AVP. BGM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE THE IFR OR WORSE
CEILINGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL OF TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT OR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
OUT ON TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK
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