123
FXUS61 KBGM 170316
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1016 PM EST MON DEC 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
1000 PM UPDATE...
WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL PUSHING EAST OF I-81 AND RAIN
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT TO THE WEST, POPS WERE
LOWERED A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM TO REFLECT THE MORE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION BY BLENDING IN THE HRRR. CURRENT
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ALSO RUNNING LOWER THAN REFLECTED IN
THE HOURLY FORECAST, SO DID LOWER BOTH BLENDING A BIT OF
CONSSHORT AND NBM10TH PERCENTILE THROUGH 12Z.
645 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS SOME ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE ONSET OF RAIN WAS A LITTLE QUICK, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SO DID ADD IN SOME FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE PA, BUT
AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT. ALSO
BLENDED IN THE LATEST TEMPS/DEW POINTS INTO THE NEAR TERM. WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LOWER
THAN FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
RISING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
220 PM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND NOON,
BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE, AND THE BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN OUR AREA WILL ONLY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH ACROSS ONEIDA
COUNTY.
COLD AIR ON WESTERLY FLOW WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM
SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY
AS RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING BACK IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
CUTTING OFF THE LAKE MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE...
WEDNESDAY STARTS OFF DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD
AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OUT AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE, OVERALL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW AND WILL
PUSH SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NICE WARM NOSE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AS THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN WED AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. THIS LIMITS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS MUCH OF THE LOWER
COLUMN IS SATURATED, SO THE MAIN P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING
SNOW STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING FROM 1C IN THE MORNING TO -10C WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW
WILL PUSH THIS COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES, KICKING OFF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE
CONTAINED NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, BUT FEW ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THIS REGION. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE NW FLOW, CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S, AND WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING IN THESE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME,
WITH 1-2 INCHES CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE LAKE EFFECT ENGINE SHOULD SHUT OFF BE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS FLOW SWITCHES TO MORE WESTERLY AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. COLDER CANADIAN AIR
WILL STICK AROUND, WITH THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO LOW
TOP MID 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
245 PM UPDATE...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY, BUT STRENGTH
AND TIMING STILL REMAIN UNCLEAR. THE OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN
SHOWS MORE FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION WHERE THE JET STREAM IS
SET UP, SO ANY LOW THAT DOES PASS THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD BE
WEAK AND MAY EVEN SHUNT ITS ENERGY OFF THE COAST AND DEVELOP A
LOW OVER THE OCEAN. IF PRECIP DOES FALL, IT WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.
A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL FILL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM, KEEPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK OFF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THE FLOW DIRECTION IS NOT OPTIMAL
FOR STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS, 850MB TEMPS IN THE -20CS
WILL DEFINITELY GENERATE SOME STRONGER CELLULAR SHOWERS PASSING
OVER CNY SAT INTO SUN AM.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
635 PM UPDATE
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, ENDING AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DETERIORATE VSBYS TO AT LEAST
MVFR, WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY FOG THAT CAN FORM.RAIN
IS MOST LIKELY FROM 01Z TO 08Z THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ITH, BGM AND AVP;
WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ELM AND RME DURING THE
STEADIER RAIN AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONT EXITS EAST BY AROUND 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AND
WINDS SHIFT SW TO WEST CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT BACK TO MVFR OR
MVFR FUEL ALT AREAWIDE. CEILINGS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT ITH, ELM,
BGM AND AVP. SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAY KEEP
SYR AND RME BKN-OVC MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING,
VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5-15 KTS
MUCH OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE (MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK/MJM
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