249
FXUS61 KBGM 170805
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1000 PM UPDATE...
WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL PUSHING EAST OF I-81 AND RAIN
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT TO THE WEST, POPS WERE
LOWERED A BIT IN THE NEAR TERM TO REFLECT THE MORE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION BY BLENDING IN THE HRRR. CURRENT
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ALSO RUNNING LOWER THAN REFLECTED IN
THE HOURLY FORECAST, SO DID LOWER BOTH BLENDING A BIT OF
CONSSHORT AND NBM10TH PERCENTILE THROUGH 12Z.
645 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS SOME ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE ONSET OF RAIN WAS A LITTLE QUICK, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SO DID ADD IN SOME FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE PA, BUT
AS THE RAIN MOVES IN, THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT. ALSO
BLENDED IN THE LATEST TEMPS/DEW POINTS INTO THE NEAR TERM. WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LOWER
THAN FORECASTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
RISING AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
220 PM UPDATE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND NOON,
BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE, AND THE BEST FORCING EXPECTED TO OCCUR WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN OUR AREA WILL ONLY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS A HALF INCH ACROSS ONEIDA
COUNTY.
COLD AIR ON WESTERLY FLOW WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO FORM
SOME LAKE-EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY
AS RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING BACK IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
CUTTING OFF THE LAKE MOISTURE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS LEAVING WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPES TO SNOW. GIVEN
THE DROPPING INTENSITY IN PRECIPITATION RATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT
SEE A GREATER PERIOD OF TIME WITH ALL SNOW. VALLEYS MAY SEE A
CHANGEOVER TOO LATE TO GET ANY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CNY.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF OF ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
GOOD LAKE SURFACE TEMP TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE) FOR ORGANIZED
BANDING LATE WENESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS WINDOW MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SNOW BAND
POTENTIALLY BEING TRANSIENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO SLOWLY
CHANGE DIRECTION THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. BRIEF
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WEAKENS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND DIRECTION WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENDING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND A LITTLE WEAKER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS STRONGER AND MORE
DOMINANT. THE NORTHERN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE WAVE OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL BE TOO FAR OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO REALLY
AFFECT US MUCH BUT THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT CONNECTS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GREAT LAKES TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF
THE COAST MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET US SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING TO START OFF COLD AS THE LOW DEEPENING
IN THE ATLANTIC PROPAGATES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG
WITH A STRONG POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND COULD
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -20C. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAISED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
WINDS NEAR AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AS THE
POLAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WHICH MAY KEEP LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
IN PLACE LIMITING OUR RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD BELOW 0 READINGS. THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
635 PM UPDATE
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, ENDING AROUND OR JUST BEFORE 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL DETERIORATE VSBYS TO AT LEAST
MVFR, WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY FOG THAT CAN FORM.RAIN
IS MOST LIKELY FROM 01Z TO 08Z THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
IFR OR WORSE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT ITH, BGM AND AVP;
WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ELM AND RME DURING THE
STEADIER RAIN AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AFTER THE FRONT EXITS EAST BY AROUND 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING AND
WINDS SHIFT SW TO WEST CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT BACK TO MVFR OR
MVFR FUEL ALT AREAWIDE. CEILINGS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT ITH, ELM,
BGM AND AVP. SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MAY KEEP
SYR AND RME BKN-OVC MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL START OUT EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING,
VEERING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY VEERING TO
WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5-15 KTS
MUCH OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION DEPARTING
WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE (MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MPK/MJM
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