049
FXUS61 KBGM 171135
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR A SHORT STAY LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDING INTO THE REGION ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM THEN MOVES THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING MOVED OUT OF THE REGION WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME SLOW CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY.
HOWEVER, WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS SOME AREAS NEAR THE NY THRUWAY
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 40'S. A BRIEF BREAK IS THEN
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SHORT INTERVAL OF
HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 30.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG A FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRESENT
FOR A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH. FAIRLY CONFIDENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE TO AROUND 40 GIVEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS BEFORE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. STILL
FAVORING RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LIMITING DYNAMICAL
AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. OVERALL, MODELING CONTINUES TO TREND
A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE FEATURE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SLOWEST GETTING TO THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.
RAINFALL OF AROUND A QUARTER INCH IS MOST PROBABLE AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS LEAVING WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPES TO SNOW. GIVEN
THE DROPPING INTENSITY IN PRECIPITATION RATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT
SEE A GREATER PERIOD OF TIME WITH ALL SNOW. VALLEYS MAY SEE A
CHANGEOVER TOO LATE TO GET ANY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CNY.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF OF ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
GOOD LAKE SURFACE TEMP TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE) FOR ORGANIZED
BANDING LATE WENESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS WINDOW MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SNOW BAND
POTENTIALLY BEING TRANSIENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO SLOWLY
CHANGE DIRECTION THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. BRIEF
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WEAKENS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND DIRECTION WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENDING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND A LITTLE WEAKER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS STRONGER AND MORE
DOMINANT. THE NORTHERN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE WAVE OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL BE TOO FAR OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO REALLY
AFFECT US MUCH BUT THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT CONNECTS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GREAT LAKES TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF
THE COAST MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET US SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING TO START OFF COLD AS THE LOW DEEPENING
IN THE ATLANTIC PROPAGATES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG
WITH A STRONG POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND COULD
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -20C. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAISED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
WINDS NEAR AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AS THE
POLAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WHICH MAY KEEP LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
IN PLACE LIMITING OUR RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD BELOW 0 READINGS. THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN INTERVAL OF VFR CONDITIONS AT SOME TAF SITES BEHIND A COLD
FRONT IS OCCURRING NOW. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO A
FEW TAF SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY MVFR CEILINGS IS NOT
IDEAL. ALSO THE CLEARING PROVIDED A SMALL WINDOW FOR KELM TO
FOG WHICH SHOULD LAST TILL AROUND 14Z. IFR AT KAVP SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD BE WESTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... VFR IN THE MORNING THEN RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MWG
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