502
FXUS61 KBGM 171922
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
222 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE...
CURRENT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
TOWING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE MORNING, IT'LL BE
MOSTLY RAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DECREASING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEING SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY
HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED IN
THE SHORT TERM SECTION. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOLER, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE,
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
40S, WITH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SEASONABLE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST AS THE
PRECIPITATION IS LEAVING WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPES TO SNOW. GIVEN
THE DROPPING INTENSITY IN PRECIPITATION RATE AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING, ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT
SEE A GREATER PERIOD OF TIME WITH ALL SNOW. VALLEYS MAY SEE A
CHANGEOVER TOO LATE TO GET ANY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CNY.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF OF ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
GOOD LAKE SURFACE TEMP TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE) FOR ORGANIZED
BANDING LATE WENESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS WINDOW MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE SNOW BAND
POTENTIALLY BEING TRANSIENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO SLOWLY
CHANGE DIRECTION THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING. BRIEF
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WEAKENS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND DIRECTION WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ENDING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
CONTINUES TO TREND A LITTLE WEAKER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS STRONGER AND MORE
DOMINANT. THE NORTHERN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE WAVE OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL BE TOO FAR OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO REALLY
AFFECT US MUCH BUT THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT CONNECTS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GREAT LAKES TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW OFF
THE COAST MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET US SOME SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING TO START OFF COLD AS THE LOW DEEPENING
IN THE ATLANTIC PROPAGATES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG
WITH A STRONG POLAR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND COULD
DROP 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -20C. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAISED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
WINDS NEAR AND ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AS THE
POLAR SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WHICH MAY KEEP LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
IN PLACE LIMITING OUR RADIATIONAL COOLING. IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT
WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD BELOW 0 READINGS. THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS. ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR TO BORDERLINE MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF.
POST-FRONTAL GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND CLOUD LEVELS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... VFR IN THE MORNING THEN RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS, THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT BY THURSDAY.
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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