899
FXUS61 KBGM 180017
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
717 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
715 PM UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON; BUT
OVERALL IT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 1
PM AND 4 PM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS (TR - 2", EXCEPT 1-4" N. ONEIDA) WERE LEFT
MAINLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
220 PM UPDATE...
CURRENT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
TOWING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE MORNING, IT'LL BE
MOSTLY RAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DECREASING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEING SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY
HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED IN
THE SHORT TERM SECTION. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOLER, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE,
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
40S, WITH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SEASONABLE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
300 PM UPDATE...
ONE WEAK SYSTEM DEPARTS, AND ANOTHER ENTERS, DURING THIS PERIOD
OF GRADUAL COOLING.
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DIP
AROUND MINUS-12 CELSIUS OVER LAKE ONTARIO, WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR A
LAKE RESPONSE. HOWEVER, IMMEDIATE FLAT RIDGING WILL ALSO BE
OCCURRING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE LAYER TO BECOME QUITE
SHALLOW. IN ADDITION TO LIMITING THE LAKE RESPONSE, IT MAY EVEN
POSE A CHALLENGE TO GET ICE CRYSTALS AT THE TOP OF THE CLOUD
LAYER AT TIMES AND THUS LOWEST ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WHERE
THEY EVEN OCCUR, WILL BE LIMITED TO ABOUT A HALF INCH OR LESS.
NY-PA BORDER COUNTIES SOUTHWARD WILL GENERALLY BE DRY, ALBEIT
WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OVER OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OVER CAROLINA COAST BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT. THAT SAID, WHEN THE WAVE PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, MUCH OF THE SATURATED LAYER FROM ABOUT
5000-10000 FEET WILL BE NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AT DENDRITIC GROWTH
TEMPERATURES, WHICH EVEN WITH LIMITED LIQUID-EQUIVALENT WOULD
SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAVE
WILL INTRODUCE A COLDER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
300 PM UPDATE...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO
THE COLDEST PERIOD SO FAR THIS SEASON YET ALSO MOSTLY BENIGN
WEATHER.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE REMARKABLY DRY, GIVEN ITS
SOURCE REGION. THAT SAID, 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS WILL TEND TO PROMOTE FLURRIES FROM ANY
STRATOCUMULUS COMING OFF THE LAKES EVEN IF THEY WILL NOT AMOUNT
TO MUCH. WINDS MAY ALSO LINE UP FOR NARROW FINGER LAKE
STREAMERS AT TIMES.
WIND CHILLS ARE PROJECTED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MUCH OF THE TIME
THIS WEEKEND, EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE WIND YET THE
TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES ARE FORECAST TO REACH SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. THE ARCTIC HIGH PASSES MONDAY, ALLOWING
RETURN FLOW TO SOMEWHAT MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY YET
STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TONIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS THE NY TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE AT TIMES FROM VFR TO MVFR, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF CEILING
RESTRICTIONS. AVP WILL BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST IFR RESTRICTIONS TO ALL
TERMINALS BEGINNING AROUND 19-20Z. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO START MIXING IN AT BGM
AND ITH, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THE NY TERMINALS TO BEGIN
MIXING WITH SNOW IS AFTER 00Z. AVP IS EXPECTED TO STAY AS ALL
RAIN INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NY
TERMINALS IN THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY SOME LAKE EFFECT INTO
THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR AVP WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MJM
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DK/KL
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