128
FXUS61 KBGM 180845
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 AM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WITH THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE
IN NE PA AS CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE.
715 PM UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY ON TRACK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON; BUT
OVERALL IT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 1
PM AND 4 PM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ALONG WITH THE
OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS (TR - 2", EXCEPT 1-4" N. ONEIDA) WERE LEFT
MAINLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
220 PM UPDATE...
CURRENT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NE
PA WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
TOWING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE MORNING, IT'LL BE
MOSTLY RAIN FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DECREASING HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT EXITS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEING SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY
HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED IN
THE SHORT TERM SECTION. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOLER, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE,
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW
40S, WITH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SEASONABLE IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
A POTENT, BUT WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW FILLING
AS IT MOVES EAST, THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE OF INTERACTION
WITH A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE THAT IS ALREADY OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. OVERNIGHT TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE ROBUST INVERTED
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EXTENDING FROM
THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE COAST TO THE WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AS PHASING OCCURS. LIFT OVERALL WILL BE PRETTY WEAK BUT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD
AIR IN PLACE. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE, IT DEEPENS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE
REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PLUS LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING WILL HELP THE LIGHT SNOW
PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
(LIKELY LESS THAN 4 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN).
MODEL MEAN WIND DIRECTION AT 925 MB TO 850 MB IS ROUGHLY 320
DEGREES WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME FINGER LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AND THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WILL BE PLENTY COLD TO GET A LAKE
RESPONSE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPS DOWN NEAR - 20C. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES JUST DOWNWIND OF SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY, IT IS LIKELY
THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS EVEN SEEING THOSE WIND CHILLS FALL
BELOW 0.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF FRIGID WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH EVEN A
FEW BELOW 0 READINGS IN THE TUG HILL AND CATSKILLS. RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD START ON
MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO MID WEEK. 250 MB
FLOW NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH THE POLAR JET
LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
UP TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW THIS WEEK AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND, ITS POSSIBLE SOME SNOW
WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO CHRISTMAS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SNOW FALLING ON CHRISTMAS AS SOME
MEMBERS OF BOTH THE EPA AND GEFS INDICATE SOME SNOWFALL BUT
UNFORTUNATELY MORE ARE LEANING TOWARDS RAIN. TRENDS IN GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE COLDER AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES MID WEEK SO HOPEFULLY THAT TREND CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND LOWER THE ODDS OF RAIN AND SNOW
MELT PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT NY TAF SITES POSSIBLE TILL MID
MORNING THEN VFR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS WITH
RAIN THEN COME IN BY MID-AFTERNOON. RAIN THEN CHANGES TO SNOW
SHOWERS WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... ANY RESTRICTIONS LIFT THURSDAY
MORNING THEN VFR.
FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MWG
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