669
FXUS61 KBGM 181807
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
107 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION TODAY,
WHICH WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO
START NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
1005 AM UPDATE:
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR TODAY. ALSO, TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE LOOK TO BE PRESENT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE WITH
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WITH INDICATIONS MANY SPOTS EDGE INTO
THE 40'S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE MODELED BELOW FREEZING SO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MUCH HELP FOR A RAPID
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STILL,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO JUST GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM. LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POSSIBILITY
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT NEAR THE NY THRUWAY. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR SO WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN A COLD AIRMASS ADVECTING IN THURSDAY TEMPERATURES MAY
HOVER AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER AROUND TILL THE FLOW SWITCHES
DIRECTIONS LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
A POTENT, BUT WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW FILLING
AS IT MOVES EAST, THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS IS MAINLY BECAUSE OF INTERACTION
WITH A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE THAT IS ALREADY OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. OVERNIGHT TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A MORE ROBUST INVERTED
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST EXTENDING FROM
THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE COAST TO THE WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM
AS PHASING OCCURS. LIFT OVERALL WILL BE PRETTY WEAK BUT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD
AIR IN PLACE. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE, IT DEEPENS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE
REGION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PLUS LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPING WILL HELP THE LIGHT SNOW
PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
(LIKELY LESS THAN 4 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF
HIGHER TERRAIN).
MODEL MEAN WIND DIRECTION AT 925 MB TO 850 MB IS ROUGHLY 320
DEGREES WHICH IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME FINGER LAKE ENHANCEMENT
AND THE AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WILL BE PLENTY COLD TO GET A LAKE
RESPONSE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPS DOWN NEAR - 20C. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES JUST DOWNWIND OF SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SATURDAY, IT IS LIKELY
THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS EVEN SEEING THOSE WIND CHILLS FALL
BELOW 0.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF FRIGID WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH EVEN A
FEW BELOW 0 READINGS IN THE TUG HILL AND CATSKILLS. RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD START ON
MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO MID WEEK. 250 MB
FLOW NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ZONAL WITH THE POLAR JET
LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
UP TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR CHRISTMAS. GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW THIS WEEK AND THE COLD THIS WEEKEND, ITS POSSIBLE SOME SNOW
WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO CHRISTMAS MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SNOW FALLING ON CHRISTMAS AS SOME
MEMBERS OF BOTH THE EPA AND GEFS INDICATE SOME SNOWFALL BUT
UNFORTUNATELY MORE ARE LEANING TOWARDS RAIN. TRENDS IN GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE COLDER AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES MID WEEK SO HOPEFULLY THAT TREND CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW AND LOWER THE ODDS OF RAIN AND SNOW
MELT PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS
WILL BE LOWERING TO MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE BY THE MID-AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST. BY THIS
EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS AND/OR VISBYS LIKELY LOWERING TO
IFR AT MOST TERMINALS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO FUEL
ALTERNATE CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AND THEN MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER 12Z. KELM AND KAVP WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR AFTER 12Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT
KSYR AND KRME, OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MWG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page