376
FXUS61 KBGM 190000
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
700 PM EST WED DEC 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE ENDING AS SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO START NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE...
THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURRED QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE WET-BULBING OCCURRED PRETTY QUICKLY,
DROPPING TEMPS 4 OR 5 DEGREES IN AN HOUR DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTED AND SATURATED THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. BECAUSE OF THIS, SNOW FALL AMOUNTS HAD TO BE
ADJUSTED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO, AND AGAIN ON THIS UPDATE AS
WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THAT WOULD REQUIRE
HEADLINES, BUT AMOUNTS WERE UPPED 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF CNY, ESPECIALLY WHERE RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. FOR EXAMPLE, OUR OFFICE HAS RECEIVED 0.5 IN OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AS THE CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW OCCURRED QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND THE SNOW
BEGAN TO STICK TO THE GROUND ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. THE ORIGINAL
FORECAST HAD 0 IN OF SNOW FALLING. BASED ON THIS RESULT, IT
SEEMED PRUDENT TO ADD THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS CNY WHERE IT HAS BEEN SNOWING THE
LONGEST, AS WELL AS ADDING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
255 PM UPDATE:
AS EXPECTED, LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND NORTHWESTERN PA HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 30S
AND THEREFORE THE RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW THERE. THIS COLDER
AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION BY THIS
EVENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH AND WILL BE EAST
OF OUR AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IN MOST OF THE VALLEYS.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS
EVENING AND 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND -10C.
AS A RESULT, A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE WILL OCCUR AND SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTIES (GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES), BUT STILL LIMITED IMPACTS
OVERALL. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL NY ON THURSDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
MOVING IN BY THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL END THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY, WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
310 PM UPDATE...
A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST
AND A MORE DOMINATE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP
FEED THE WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WITH COLDER
AIR IN PLACE, WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AND UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (3" IN PA, 4"IN NY).
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. FALLING
850MB TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE 1-3 INCHES, THOUGH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION LINING UP WITH THE
FETCH OF SENECA AND CAYUGA LAKES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THOSE LAKES.
AFTER A MILD FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SAGGING WELL INTO THE
SOUTHERN US, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM UP MUCH ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS RETURN
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH LOCATIONS IN N. ONEIDA AND IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY FALL BELOW ZERO. FAIRLY BREEZY WINDS WILL PUSH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
310 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO SUNDAY AS COLD,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT, THE FLOW OVER THE LAKE BECOMES WESTERLY SO ANY
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING QUIET
CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS HAS A LONGER LASTING
SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. ALSO, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AS SOME MODELS ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SEEING THAT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO NEXT WEEK WILL BE OVER AN INCH AND NO
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT MELTING, CHANCES ARE FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THERE WOULD STILL BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS IF ANY RAIN CAN HOLD OFF.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY RETREAT THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BUT
NOT WITHOUT TEMPERATURES ONLY MAXING OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW
A SIMILAR TREND. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A
CHILLY START TO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN AND SNOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF, WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ON THE IMMEDIATE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIP BAND.
FUEL ALT TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THEN, WITH LIFR
POSSIBLE AT ITH AND BGM.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, WITH SYR AND RME
MOST LIKELY IMPACTED AFTER 04-05Z. THE SNOW WILL ONLY LAST 2 OR
3 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH, AND THERE'S A CHANCE THE BREAK-
AWAY BAND COULD REACH ITH AFTER 10Z.
ELSEWHERE, CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT, HANGING
ON LONGEST AT ITH AND BGM WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH VFR
RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...AJG/BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJG/MPH
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