850
FXUS61 KBGM 190844
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 AM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED REGION WIDE. VERY COLD
AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM MID NEXT WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO CHRISTMAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS HELPING DRIVE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE NY
THRUWAY HAVE BEEN WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION TYPES HAVE
LARGELY BEEN RAIN BUT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID
MORNING AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COME TO AN
END LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS
MOVES IN. A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING. THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER WILL BE FILLING. A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BECOME DOMINANT
WITH THE CLIPPER BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND BEGINS TO PHASE WITH
THE LOW OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE REGION
UNDER AN INVERTED TROUGH SO PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD THROUGH
NEPA AND INTO UPSTATE NY FRIDAY. ANTECEDENT COLD AIR WILL MEAN
THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALMOST ALL SNOW. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE WYOMING VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES MAY NUDGE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO PRECIP ONSET THOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING
SHOULD TRANSITION THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW QUICKLY IF IT STARTS
AS RAIN. THE LACK OF GOOD JET DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, LIFT WILL BE BROAD AND WEAK SO WHILE
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY,
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
310 AM UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. BRINGING FALLING
850MB TEMPS AND NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW, THAT WILL KICK OFF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY AND
LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 INCH RANGE, THOUGH
WITH THE WIND DIRECTION LINING UP WITH THE FETCH OF SENECA AND
CAYUGA LAKES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THOSE LAKES.
FINALLY, THIS AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM UP MUCH ON SATURDAY AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH PERSISTENT
WINDS OUT OF THE NW, WE MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF ONEIDA, OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
325 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND TAKE AWAY ANY
MOISTURE THAT'S LEFT IN THE DGZ LAYER. THUS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW, WILL MAKE FOR
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THIS SET UP, WE DROPPED FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT HIGH CLOUDS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE, MAY LIMIT COOLING
SOME ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, SO DIDN'T LOWER TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
HAS A LONGER LASTING SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAVORABLE TRACK AT THIS TIME TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS, COMBINED ALREADY WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND WITH NO CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING, THE PROBABILITY FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY RETREAT LATER IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS DAY WITH 40S POSSIBLE BY
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY VACATED THE REGION WITH SOME RESIDUAL
LAKE EFFECT AROUND SYR AND RME THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. CIGS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH MOST TERMINALS BECOMING VFR BY 0Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT
SNOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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