756
FXUS61 KBGM 192013
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
310 PM UPDATE:
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AROUND THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR WITH A
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE EASTERLY.
MOST OF TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH OUR REGION
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.
THE SETUP FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT COMPLICATED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COLLIDES/PHASES
WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THIS PHASING OCCURS A BIT
TOO LATE AND THEREFORE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AREA OF QPF ACROSS THE
POCONOS-CATSKILLS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, BUT EVEN THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW
IMPACT NATURE OF THIS EVENT, THIS DOES LOOK TO BE AN ENTIRELY
SNOW EVENT WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY END UP BEING PARTS OF THE WYOMING
VALLEY IN PA WHERE RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING, THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED. THIS MEANS
THAT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY, WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL SEE THE SNOW
GRADUALLY END THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
IN TOTAL, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION, WITH MORE LIKE 2-5 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THERE WAS BRIEF CONSIDERATION TO ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
AFTER COORDINATING WITH NWS BUF, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
SINCE THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT AND CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY AMOUNTS (GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW)
OVER THERE ISN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
WITH TONIGHT'S MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
310 AM UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. BRINGING FALLING
850MB TEMPS AND NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW, THAT WILL KICK OFF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY AND
LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE 1-3 INCH RANGE, THOUGH
WITH THE WIND DIRECTION LINING UP WITH THE FETCH OF SENECA AND
CAYUGA LAKES, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THOSE LAKES.
FINALLY, THIS AIR MASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM UP MUCH ON SATURDAY AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. A FEW BELOW ZERO
READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH PERSISTENT
WINDS OUT OF THE NW, WE MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF ONEIDA, OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
325 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DROP EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND TAKE AWAY ANY
MOISTURE THAT'S LEFT IN THE DGZ LAYER. THUS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE IS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW, WILL MAKE FOR
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DUE TO THIS SET UP, WE DROPPED FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT HIGH CLOUDS RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE, MAY LIMIT COOLING
SOME ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, SO DIDN'T LOWER TEMPERATURES
AS MUCH IN THOSE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
HAS A LONGER LASTING SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAVORABLE TRACK AT THIS TIME TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS, COMBINED ALREADY WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND WITH NO CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING, THE PROBABILITY FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
COLDER AIR WILL SLOWLY RETREAT LATER IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS DAY WITH 40S POSSIBLE BY
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME LINGERING CEILING AND OCCASIONAL VISBY RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS,
BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MOVE
BACK IN FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW
MOVING IN. OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON).
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...BJG
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