527
FXUS61 KBGM 200012
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
712 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE...
QUIET EVENING IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
AREA. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL UPDATES TO
WINDS AND SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
310 PM UPDATE:
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AROUND THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR WITH A
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE EASTERLY.
MOST OF TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH OUR REGION
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.
THE SETUP FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT COMPLICATED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COLLIDES/PHASES
WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THIS PHASING OCCURS A BIT
TOO LATE AND THEREFORE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AREA OF QPF ACROSS THE
POCONOS-CATSKILLS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, BUT EVEN THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW
IMPACT NATURE OF THIS EVENT, THIS DOES LOOK TO BE AN ENTIRELY
SNOW EVENT WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY END UP BEING PARTS OF THE WYOMING
VALLEY IN PA WHERE RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING, THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED. THIS MEANS
THAT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY, WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL SEE THE SNOW
GRADUALLY END THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
IN TOTAL, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION, WITH MORE LIKE 2-5 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THERE WAS BRIEF CONSIDERATION TO ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
AFTER COORDINATING WITH NWS BUF, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
SINCE THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT AND CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY AMOUNTS (GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW)
OVER THERE ISN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
WITH TONIGHT'S MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
350 PM UPDATE...
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM, FALLING 850MB TEMPS AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO KICK OFF THE
WEEKEND. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY UNTIL A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ACCUMULATIONS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER REGIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME NEGATIVE OMEGA WITHIN THE
DGZ ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE INDICATING THAT SOME HEAVIER BANDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN WITH
NBM GUIDANCE TO INCREASE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRIER AIR, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY OVER LAKE ONTARIO, SO ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAN CAN
STILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, LEADING TO A BLUSTERY DAY ON SATURDAY. PEAK GUSTS WILL BE
AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH WHICH MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW.
WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S, WIND CHILLS WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. TEMPERATURES THEN FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND POTENTIALLY BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING SO WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE THE COLDER AIR MASS SLOWLY
BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. FORECASTED LOWS WERE DROPPED
BELOW GUIDANCE AS CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOWPACK SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LOW SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME CALM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
350 PM UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY SNOW. WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SOME
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY WIN
OUT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY. BECAUSE OF THIS, POPS WERE LOWERED
BELOW NBM GUIDANCE. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, CHANCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THERE TO BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS, WHICH BY
DEFINITION IS ONE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND CHRISTMAS
MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT MOST
GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. SOME
HAVE A WEAK SYSTEM PRIOR TO THIS HAPPENING, SO LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
20S ON MONDAY WILL JUMP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND AS WELL, THOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME
NIGHTS IN THE TEENS TO START THE WORK WEEK. WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
LATE IN THIS PERIOD, ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER WEDNESDAY WOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING SOME RADAR RETURNS TO WESTERN
NY AND PA, BUT OBS INDICATE NOT EVEN A FLURRY IS REACHING THE
GROUND. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS, AND LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. THE AREA OF SNOW WILL BE BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED,
MAKING IT A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO GET TOO PRECISE WITH THE TIMING
OF LOWEST POTENTIAL VISIBILITY, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A STEADY
DECREASE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AFTER 14 TO 15Z, WITH IFR
VIS COMMON AFTER ABOUT 16 TO 18Z. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE FUEL ALT CATEGORY, DROPPING TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
(AFTER 21-22Z). KEPT CEILINGS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE IN
PLACES WHERE EASTERLY FLOW RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJG/MPH
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