099
FXUS61 KBGM 200901
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
UP AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
930 PM UPDATE...
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK AND NO UPDATES WERE MADE.
630 PM UPDATE...
QUIET EVENING IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
AREA. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL UPDATES TO
WINDS AND SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.
310 PM UPDATE:
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AROUND THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR WITH A
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THERE
WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE. THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO END BY THIS EVENING WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE EASTERLY.
MOST OF TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH OUR REGION
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE 20S.
THE SETUP FOR FRIDAY IS A BIT COMPLICATED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH COLLIDES/PHASES
WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THIS PHASING OCCURS A BIT
TOO LATE AND THEREFORE HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THERE MAY BE A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AREA OF QPF ACROSS THE
POCONOS-CATSKILLS DUE TO SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, BUT EVEN THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW
IMPACT NATURE OF THIS EVENT, THIS DOES LOOK TO BE AN ENTIRELY
SNOW EVENT WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY END UP BEING PARTS OF THE WYOMING
VALLEY IN PA WHERE RAIN MAY MIX IN AT TIMES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT,
BUT WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING, THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED. THIS MEANS
THAT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY, WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL SEE THE SNOW
GRADUALLY END THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
IN TOTAL, MOST AREAS WILL SEE A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION, WITH MORE LIKE 2-5 INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THERE WAS BRIEF CONSIDERATION TO ISSUE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT
AFTER COORDINATING WITH NWS BUF, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
SINCE THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE SPREAD OUT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD
WITH RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT AND CONFIDENCE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY AMOUNTS (GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW)
OVER THERE ISN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH. THIS WILL BE RE-EVALUATED
WITH TONIGHT'S MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
350 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINING WILL PUSH NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND WIND
CHILL VALUES MAY EXCEED -10F AT TIMES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
AND ALSO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THE COLDER AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S. FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WERE AGAIN
DROPPED BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, AS CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOWPACK
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
4 AM UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE DAY, HOWEVER THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS
WELL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY WIN OUT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY. BECAUSE OF THIS, POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE AND KEPT AT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, CHANCES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS, WHICH BY
DEFINITION IS ONE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND CHRISTMAS
MORNING IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER WEDNESDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT MOST
GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
20S ON MONDAY WILL JUMP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND AS WELL, THOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME
NIGHTS IN THE TEENS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING IN THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN. THE SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SO EVERY TERMINAL WILL SEE SNOW FROM AROUND 12Z INTO
6Z TONIGHT. OVERALL THE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY SO VIS
RESTRICTIONS FALL TO IFR BUT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET LIFR AND IF IT
DOES IT WILL NOT LAST LONG. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z WHERE CONDITIONS
COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE BREAK IS LOW SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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