164
FXUS61 KBGM 200912
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
412 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
UP AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
400 AM UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD TOPS IN PA INTO NY ARE
STARTING TO COOL INDICATING THAT LIFT IS INCREASING. SO FAR LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN TOUGH TO OVERCOME AS SURFACE OBS UNDER
RADAR RETURNS OVER OHIO AND WESTERN PA HAVE NOT OBSERVED MUCH
SNOW REACHING THE GROUND YET. LATER TODAY, A DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL BECOME DOMINANT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING
UP OVER NEPA INTO CNY. THE SNOW WILL OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR IN PLACE BY MID MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CNY MAY LEAD TO A NARROW STRIP OF
HEAVIER SNOW BUT GIVEN ITS SHORT DURATION, AREAS UNDER THE BAND
WILL GET AN INCH OR LESS. LIGHTER SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS
BROAD LIFT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MID OR LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MEAN SNOW RATES
LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT, LIKELY A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS AN HOUR.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH,
WITH MOSTLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE
SNOW NOT BEING CONTINUOUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OVERALL LOW
DENSITY SNOW, POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE LOW SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
VERY COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME FINGER LAKE SNOW AS WELL SO SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF CAYUGA AND SENECA LAKES
SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
350 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINING WILL PUSH NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND WIND
CHILL VALUES MAY EXCEED -10F AT TIMES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
AND ALSO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THE COLDER AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S. FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WERE AGAIN
DROPPED BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, AS CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOWPACK
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
4 AM UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE DAY, HOWEVER THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS
WELL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY WIN OUT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY. BECAUSE OF THIS, POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE AND KEPT AT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, CHANCES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS, WHICH BY
DEFINITION IS ONE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND CHRISTMAS
MORNING IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER WEDNESDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT MOST
GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
20S ON MONDAY WILL JUMP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND AS WELL, THOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME
NIGHTS IN THE TEENS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING IN THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z. CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN. THE SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SO EVERY TERMINAL WILL SEE SNOW FROM AROUND 12Z INTO
6Z TONIGHT. OVERALL THE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY SO VIS
RESTRICTIONS FALL TO IFR BUT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET LIFR AND IF IT
DOES IT WILL NOT LAST LONG. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z WHERE CONDITIONS
COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE BREAK IS LOW SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME RESTRICTIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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