043
FXUS61 KBGM 201838
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN
MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO SATURDAY.
THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
125 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 0.6 INCHES MEASURED
HERE AT BGM. SNOW IS MOSTLY NEEDLES AND FRAGMENTS, AND
COMPRESSES NICELY WITH THE SLOW SNOWFALL RATE, YIELDING JUST
0.05 INCHES OF LIQUID. SO SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR
THE COLDER AIR MASS.
AS WAS EXPECTED, THE SNOW AREA IS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY THIS EVENING, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A SECONDARY UPTICK
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, AGAIN
WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES LAKE EFFECT SHOW BANDS
WILL SET UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE A SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE, SNOWFALL WILL BE
HELPED SLIGHTLY BY THE PRESENCE OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT HERE
AGAIN THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATIOS, AND LIMITED IMPACTS.
630 AM UPDATE...
SMALL CHANGES TO THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MORNING TO MATCH THE SNOW MOVING IN. SOME OBS IN CENTRAL PA ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME SNOW SO DELAYED ONSET AN HOUR FOR
MOST OF THE REGION.
400 AM UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD TOPS IN PA INTO NY ARE
STARTING TO COOL INDICATING THAT LIFT IS INCREASING. SO FAR LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN TOUGH TO OVERCOME AS SURFACE OBS UNDER
RADAR RETURNS OVER OHIO AND WESTERN PA HAVE NOT OBSERVED MUCH
SNOW REACHING THE GROUND YET. LATER TODAY, A DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL BECOME DOMINANT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING
UP OVER NEPA INTO CNY. THE SNOW WILL OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR IN PLACE BY MID MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CNY MAY LEAD TO A NARROW STRIP OF
HEAVIER SNOW BUT GIVEN ITS SHORT DURATION, AREAS UNDER THE BAND
WILL GET AN INCH OR LESS. LIGHTER SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS
BROAD LIFT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MID OR LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MEAN SNOW RATES
LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT, LIKELY A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS AN HOUR.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH,
WITH MOSTLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE
SNOW NOT BEING CONTINUOUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OVERALL LOW
DENSITY SNOW, POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE LOW SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
VERY COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME FINGER LAKE SNOW AS WELL SO SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF CAYUGA AND SENECA LAKES
SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
350 AM UPDATE...
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER INTO SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR ON SUNDAY AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY, SO ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINING WILL PUSH NORTH
OF THE REGION. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND WIND
CHILL VALUES MAY EXCEED -10F AT TIMES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
AND ALSO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ACROSS THE REGION.
WHILE THE COLDER AIR MASS SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S. FORECAST LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WERE AGAIN
DROPPED BELOW NBM GUIDANCE, AS CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOWPACK
SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
4 AM UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE DAY, HOWEVER THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS
WELL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY WIN OUT AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY. BECAUSE OF THIS, POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE AND KEPT AT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, CHANCES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS, WHICH BY
DEFINITION IS ONE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND CHRISTMAS
MORNING IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTER WEDNESDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT MOST
GUIDANCE HAS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
20S ON MONDAY WILL JUMP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THURSDAY. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND AS WELL, THOUGH NOT BEFORE SOME
NIGHTS IN THE TEENS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MOST
COMMON, THOUGH A FEW TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WILL DIP TO LIFR
BRIEFLY. AS EXPECTED, THE SNOW IS WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED.
IT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, AND BRIEF LIFR IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN, BUT WITH THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION, IT'S DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT PRECISELY WHERE AND WHEN THE LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
BROAD LIGHT SNOW WILL EVOLVE INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH SYR, ITH, AND BGM
MOST LIKELY TO SEE LINGERING IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING LONGEST AT ITH.
OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK/MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL/MPK
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...AJG/MPH
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