924
FXUS61 KBGM 201932
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN
MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO SATURDAY.
THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
125 PM UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH 0.6 INCHES MEASURED
HERE AT BGM. SNOW IS MOSTLY NEEDLES AND FRAGMENTS, AND
COMPRESSES NICELY WITH THE SLOW SNOWFALL RATE, YIELDING JUST
0.05 INCHES OF LIQUID. SO SNOWFALL RATIOS ARE RELATIVELY LOW FOR
THE COLDER AIR MASS.
AS WAS EXPECTED, THE SNOW AREA IS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. MOST
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY THIS EVENING, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A SECONDARY UPTICK
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, AGAIN
WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN. WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES LAKE EFFECT SHOW BANDS
WILL SET UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE
THERE WILL BE A SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE, SNOWFALL WILL BE
HELPED SLIGHTLY BY THE PRESENCE OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT HERE
AGAIN THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATIOS, AND LIMITED IMPACTS.
630 AM UPDATE...
SMALL CHANGES TO THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
MORNING TO MATCH THE SNOW MOVING IN. SOME OBS IN CENTRAL PA ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME SNOW SO DELAYED ONSET AN HOUR FOR
MOST OF THE REGION.
400 AM UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUD TOPS IN PA INTO NY ARE
STARTING TO COOL INDICATING THAT LIFT IS INCREASING. SO FAR LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN TOUGH TO OVERCOME AS SURFACE OBS UNDER
RADAR RETURNS OVER OHIO AND WESTERN PA HAVE NOT OBSERVED MUCH
SNOW REACHING THE GROUND YET. LATER TODAY, A DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WILL BECOME DOMINANT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING
UP OVER NEPA INTO CNY. THE SNOW WILL OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR IN PLACE BY MID MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO CNY MAY LEAD TO A NARROW STRIP OF
HEAVIER SNOW BUT GIVEN ITS SHORT DURATION, AREAS UNDER THE BAND
WILL GET AN INCH OR LESS. LIGHTER SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS
BROAD LIFT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH THE DEEPENING
COASTAL LOW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MID OR LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MEAN SNOW RATES
LATE MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT, LIKELY A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS AN HOUR.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH,
WITH MOSTLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. GIVEN THE
SNOW NOT BEING CONTINUOUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OVERALL LOW
DENSITY SNOW, POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE LOW SO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
VERY COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME FINGER LAKE SNOW AS WELL SO SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF CAYUGA AND SENECA LAKES
SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
230 PM UPDATE:
WITH A LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW, SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TAKING OVER. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE SAME
AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER, WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPERATURES STILL
AROUND -15 C), TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.
WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS RETREATING, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A
FRESH SNOWPACK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE NBM
GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST LOWS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOWS TO BE IN
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. RIGHT NOW FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF THE NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (EITHER TEMPERATURE OR WIND CHILL OF -15F OR LOWER),
BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPCOMING UPDATES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
230 PM UPDATE:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING MORE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WARM NOSE MAY TRY TO SNEAK
IN, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE A WINTRY MIX IN SOME SPOTS, BUT FOR
NOW LEFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS MAINLY SNOW WITH IT STILL
BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
BY WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION-FREE
DAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY MARK THE START OF A
RARE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF MAINLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MOST
COMMON, THOUGH A FEW TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WILL DIP TO LIFR
BRIEFLY. AS EXPECTED, THE SNOW IS WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED.
IT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, AND BRIEF LIFR IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN, BUT WITH THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION, IT'S DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT PRECISELY WHERE AND WHEN THE LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
BROAD LIGHT SNOW WILL EVOLVE INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH SYR, ITH, AND BGM
MOST LIKELY TO SEE LINGERING IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING LONGEST AT ITH.
OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK/MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG/MPH
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