374
FXUS61 KBGM 202309
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
609 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING, WITH VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL EVOLVE
INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A VERY COLD AIR MASS ARRIVES ON NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE AGAIN HEADING TOWARDS CHRISTMAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
605 PM UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE STEADIER SNOW
CENTERED NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE. POPS WERE TOUCHED UP WITH SOME
MINOR CHANGES. SOME INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS OVER-PERFORMED THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THIS, SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SOME, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THE MORE STEADY SNOWFALL IS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
355 PM UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION, WITH ANOTHER
FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS HEADING INTO THE ONTARIO PENINSULA.
A WIDESPREAD, DISORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA, THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
VISIBILITY INCREASE A BIT OVER THE FINGER LAKES AS THE TROUGH IS
PASSING. HIGH RES MODELS ALL SUGGEST WE WILL SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN SNOWFALL AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT RESURGENCE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. KELM HAS PERHAPS HAD THE MOST
PERSISTENTLY LOWEST VISIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY, OFTEN DIPPING
BELOW 1SM, YET JUST 1.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT NEARBY HORSEHEADS
AT 12:45 PM. UP AT BGM WE HAD 0.6 INCHES ON THE SNOW BOARD AT
18Z (1 PM), WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TENTHS MORE SINCE THEN.
WEBCAMS SHOW THAT DESPITE THE MORE CHEERFUL WINTER BACKDROP HERE
AT 1600 FEET, THE VALLEY AROUND BINGHAMTON AND VESTAL REMAINS
LOCKED IN ITS DULL, LOWKEY DEPRESSING GREY AND BROWN MALAISE.
BUT, THE ROADS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE, LIMITING IMPACTS DURING AN
OTHERWISE BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE HEADING INTO TOMORROW.
NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN A VERY COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS. WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL HANGING ABOUT,
EXPECT MULTIPLE BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH. THINGS WILL
LINE UP SUCH THAT THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE MOST PREFERRED
FOR SNOW, AND WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE FINGER
LAKES THEMSELVES AND THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN SE OF CAYUGA LAKE.
BUT STILL, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT SNOW, WITH JUST AN INCH OR TWO
FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND FROM THE NNW TO THE NW SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
THE FOCUS OF THE LAKE BANDS TO SOUTHERN CAYUGA, NORTHERN
CORTLAND, AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES, WHERE ANOTHER
1-2 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
ALL TOTALED UP, FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND PARTS OF NEPA (LESS IN THE VALLEYS), WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION, WITH THE MAX SW OF SYRACUSE AND
NE OF ITHACA. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD, VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
RATES, AND DRY/FLUFFY SNOW, IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY LIMITED, AND
THUS NO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERHAPS BE THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER-10S TO LOWER-20S, WITH MID-20S FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEGATIVES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. A LIGHT 5-8 MPH WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO AROUND -5 TO -10
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN LUZERNE AND
SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA COUNTIES COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
CHILLS AROUND -10 TO -12F. THIS TOUCHES COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT WE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES GIVEN THE LEAD TIME,
SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA, AND MARGINAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
230 PM UPDATE:
WITH A LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW, SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL END BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TAKING OVER. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE SAME
AREAS, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER, WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE (850MB TEMPERATURES STILL
AROUND -15 C), TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.
WHILE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE COLD AIRMASS RETREATING, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A
FRESH SNOWPACK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE NBM
GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST LOWS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOWS TO BE IN
THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO. RIGHT NOW FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF THE NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA (EITHER TEMPERATURE OR WIND CHILL OF -15F OR LOWER),
BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPCOMING UPDATES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
230 PM UPDATE:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING MORE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
TO THE AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WARM NOSE MAY TRY TO SNEAK
IN, WHICH COULD INTRODUCE A WINTRY MIX IN SOME SPOTS, BUT FOR
NOW LEFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS MAINLY SNOW WITH IT STILL
BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
BY WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION-FREE
DAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY MARK THE START OF A
RARE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF MAINLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH IFR VISIBILITIES MOST
COMMON, THOUGH A FEW TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WILL DIP TO LIFR
BRIEFLY. AS EXPECTED, THE SNOW IS WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED.
IT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES. AS A RESULT, A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED, AND BRIEF LIFR IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN, BUT WITH THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION, IT'S DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT PRECISELY WHERE AND WHEN THE LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
BROAD LIGHT SNOW WILL EVOLVE INTO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL NY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH SYR, ITH, AND BGM
MOST LIKELY TO SEE LINGERING IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING LONGEST AT ITH.
OTHERWISE BECOMING MAINLY VFR HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG/MPH
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