039
FXUS61 KBGM 210837
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TODAY AS A VERY COLD AIR MASS ARRIVES ON
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN HEADING TOWARDS
CHRISTMAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
915 PM UPDATE...
EARLIER THIS EVENING, A 850MB TROUGH PASSED THROUGH JUST AS A
500MB TROUGH WAS OVER THE REGION. THIS IS WHAT HELPED KEEP
STEADY SNOW OVER THE TWIN TIERS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME NEGATIVE OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ, BUT
THAT ONLY STICKS AROUND FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER HOUR. LOOKING AT
RADAR, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE STATIONARY BANDS ARE NOW BEGINNING
TO DRIFT SOUTH. JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, SNOWFALL TOTALS
WERE THE MAIN FOCUS. THIS TIME, MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE AS SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS FINALLY CATCHING ON TO WHAT IS
HAPPENING. REPORTS HAVE BEEN HELPFUL ON WHERE TO MAKE CHANGES
AND SOME ISOLATED REPORTS DID EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OVERNIGHT, SNOW IS EXPECTED EAST OF I-81 AND WHILE STATIONARY
BANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THESE TOTALS WERE ALSO INCREASED SOME AS
WELL, MAINLY BY INCREASING FORECASTED SLRS. POPS WERE ALSO
TOUCHED UP, THOUGH SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED ANY OF
TONIGHT'S ACTIVITY WELL. NBM GUIDANCE HAD MORE BROAD COVERAGE.
BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING, NBM GUIDANCE AND HAND
EDITS WERE MAINLY USED TO UPDATE POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.
605 PM UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE STEADIER SNOW
CENTERED NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE. POPS WERE TOUCHED UP WITH SOME
MINOR CHANGES. SOME INITIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE INDICATED
THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS OVER-PERFORMED THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF
THIS, SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE BUMPED UP SOME, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THE MORE STEADY SNOWFALL IS. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
355 PM UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION, WITH ANOTHER
FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS HEADING INTO THE ONTARIO PENINSULA.
A WIDESPREAD, DISORGANIZED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL
ACROSS MUCH OF NY AND PA, THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE
VISIBILITY INCREASE A BIT OVER THE FINGER LAKES AS THE TROUGH IS
PASSING. HIGH RES MODELS ALL SUGGEST WE WILL SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN SNOWFALL AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT RESURGENCE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. KELM HAS PERHAPS HAD THE MOST
PERSISTENTLY LOWEST VISIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY, OFTEN DIPPING
BELOW 1SM, YET JUST 1.5 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT NEARBY HORSEHEADS
AT 12:45 PM. UP AT BGM WE HAD 0.6 INCHES ON THE SNOW BOARD AT
18Z (1 PM), WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TENTHS MORE SINCE THEN.
WEBCAMS SHOW THAT DESPITE THE MORE CHEERFUL WINTER BACKDROP HERE
AT 1600 FEET, THE VALLEY AROUND BINGHAMTON AND VESTAL REMAINS
LOCKED IN ITS DULL, LOWKEY DEPRESSING GREY AND BROWN MALAISE.
BUT, THE ROADS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE, LIMITING IMPACTS DURING AN
OTHERWISE BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE HEADING INTO TOMORROW.
NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN A VERY COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS. WITH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL HANGING ABOUT,
EXPECT MULTIPLE BANDS OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH. THINGS WILL
LINE UP SUCH THAT THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL BE MOST PREFERRED
FOR SNOW, AND WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE FINGER
LAKES THEMSELVES AND THE SURROUNDING TERRAIN SE OF CAYUGA LAKE.
BUT STILL, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT SNOW, WITH JUST AN INCH OR TWO
FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
BACK AROUND FROM THE NNW TO THE NW SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING
THE FOCUS OF THE LAKE BANDS TO SOUTHERN CAYUGA, NORTHERN
CORTLAND, AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES, WHERE ANOTHER
1-2 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
ALL TOTALED UP, FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND PARTS OF NEPA (LESS IN THE VALLEYS), WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES
AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION, WITH THE MAX SW OF SYRACUSE AND
NE OF ITHACA. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD, VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
RATES, AND DRY/FLUFFY SNOW, IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY LIMITED, AND
THUS NO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERHAPS BE THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER-10S TO LOWER-20S, WITH MID-20S FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS, WITH NEGATIVES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY. A LIGHT 5-8 MPH WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO AROUND -5 TO -10
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN LUZERNE AND
SOUTHERN LACKAWANNA COUNTIES COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND
CHILLS AROUND -10 TO -12F. THIS TOUCHES COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT WE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES GIVEN THE LEAD TIME,
SMALL GEOGRAPHICAL AREA, AND MARGINAL VALUES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE:
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS RETREATING, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A FRESH
SNOWPACK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE
FOR FORECAST LOWS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOWS TO BE IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. RIGHT NOW FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF THE NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
(EITHER TEMPERATURE OR WIND CHILL OF -15F OR LOWER), BUT THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPCOMING UPDATES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BRING A 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
335 AM UPDATE:
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS ALMOST CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THIS SNOW WILL BE IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY, SO NOT MUCH MELTING IS EXPECTED BEFORE CHRISTMAS DAY.
BY WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION-FREE
DAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY MARK THE START OF A
RARE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF MAINLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE HEAVIER SNOW IS DRIFTING OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH BGM AND AVP SEEING IFR VIS. BGM WILL SEE VIS BECOME
MOSTLY MVFR BY AROUND 7Z WITH AVP LIKELY HOLDING ON TO IFR
THROUGH 9Z. ITH AND ELM COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SLOWLY
DRIFTING NW INTO SYR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RME WITH THE
NORTH WINDS MAY HOLD ON TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THAN NOT AND THE
LAKE EFFECT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NYZ016>018-025-044.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ025-044-045-055-056.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ057.
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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