915
FXUS61 KBGM 211146
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TODAY AS A VERY COLD AIR MASS ARRIVES ON
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN HEADING TOWARDS
CHRISTMAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
640 AM UPDATE...
EXPANDED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AS
THE LAKE EFFECT THIS MORNING HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD. A COUPLE
OF HEALTHY FINGER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS ARE EXTENDING INTO
TIOGA AND SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES THAT COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE
INCHES OF LOW DENSITY SNOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
345 AM UPDATE...
THE SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AS THE INVERTED
TROUGH FLATTENS OUT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING IN 850
MB TEMPS OF DOWN AROUND -20C THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE WIND SHEAR AND DEPTH
OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT SUPER FAVORABLE FOR WELL ORGANIZED SNOW
BANDS, THERE WILL BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WATER TEMP VS AIR
TEMP SO SOME BANDS WILL FORM. LIFT WILL BE RIGHT THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS OF 20:1 OR GREATER.
SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE AROUND 320 DEGREES WHICH IS ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR FINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS QPF WERE RAISED JUST DOWNWIND OF SENECA
AND CAYUGA LAKES TO BUMP UP SNOW TOTALS ABOUT AN INCH. WITH THE
POORLY ORGANIZED SNOW BANDS, THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY LONG
RESIDENCE TIMES OF THE BANDS IN ONE LOCATION BUT AS THEY MOVE
ABOUT, A WIDESPREAD AREA ON WESTERN CNY AND THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES COULD GET UP NEAR 6 INCHES IN SPOTS BY TOMORROW MORNING
SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE LOW DENSITY SNOW WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY NEAR OPEN FIELDS.
TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS WELL AS SOME WIND
CONTINUING, LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGE DIGITS BOTH
ABOVE AND BELOW 0 WITH WIND CHILLS MOSTLY BELOW 0. RIGHT NOW THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
TUG HILL MAY SEE WIND CHILLS FALL TO NEAR -15F. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THOSE COLDER WIND CHILLS IS IN DELAWARE COUNTY AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO ADVECT IN ALOFT BUT THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
AND LOWEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR MEANS NOT MUCH WARMING UP WILL
OCCUR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE:
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD AIRMASS RETREATING, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A FRESH
SNOWPACK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE
FOR FORECAST LOWS. CURRENTLY FORECASTING LOWS TO BE IN THE
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS WITH MANY AREAS AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. RIGHT NOW FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF THE NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
(EITHER TEMPERATURE OR WIND CHILL OF -15F OR LOWER), BUT THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH UPCOMING UPDATES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND THE AIRMASS
WILL BE ON A MODERATING TREND. AS A RESULT, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HIGHER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT ROUND OF
SNOW WILL BRING A 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
335 AM UPDATE:
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS ALMOST CERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
THIS SNOW WILL BE IN ADDITION TO WHAT IS ALREADY ON THE GROUND
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON
TUESDAY, SO NOT MUCH MELTING IS EXPECTED BEFORE CHRISTMAS DAY.
BY WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION-FREE
DAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY MARK THE START OF A
RARE MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF MAINLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IMPACTING ITH, ELM, AND BGM EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ITH SEEING IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES. SNOW OFF OF THE
FINGER LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ITH THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING WHILE ELM WILL MAINLY SEE SNOW THIS MORNING
BEFORE 15Z. BGM WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES AT SEEING THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MOVE IN LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING AS FLOW
SHIFTS WEST BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES. AVP COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE TERMINAL BUT CHANCES OF VIS FALLING
TO IFR IS LOW. SYR WILL ALSO SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. RME HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF DODGING ALL THE SNOW TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS THE FLOW JUST STAYS TOO NW TO EVER BRING THE SNOW
BANDS FAR ENOUGH EAST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ016>018-
025-044.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR NYZ057.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...AJG
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