931
FXUS61 KBGM 170555
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING, BUT A FEW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER LATE TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY. LARGELY DRY AND MILDER FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF
SNOW SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT
SETTLES IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
7 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM FOR NEPA
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NY IN WATER VAPOR. THE NE EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS SOME
ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND AS THAT MOVES THROUGH, SNOW WILL LIKELY
PICK BACK UP AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
HALF INCH OR LESS AS QPF WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW IS PRETTY LIGHT
AT SITES THAT ARE SEEING SNOW.
350 PM UPDATE...
A STEADY BUT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRESS TO THE EAST AND POCKETS OF DRIER AIR
BEGIN TO MIX IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES CAN LINGER AROUND THE
POCONOS AND FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY THERE
CAN BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS CAN LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.
ASIDE FROM THE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CNY
TOMORROW. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS NE PA. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN, THE FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SETTING UP A MILDER AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE AND A BIT OF A BREEZE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. NOT
AS CHILLY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT ALONG IT FOR A ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HIGHS IN MANY
SPOTS MAY REACH 40 DEGREES. THIS ALSO MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW AND ICE
MELT. HOWEVER, THE WARM UP IS VERY SHORT LIVED. THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. QPF AND RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS. BACK DOWN INTO THE 10'S AND LOW 20'S BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME UNCERTAINITY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE
HEADING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENSEMBLE
DATA OVERALL CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD WITH THE OVERALL TRACK. THE
CMC WHICH LOOKED LIKE AN OUTLIER HAS HAD OTHER GUIDANCE COME CLOSER
TO IT'S TRACK. DO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GFS TO ADJUST ANOTHER
NOTCH WESTWARD AND THAT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE ISSUES IN
THE ATLANTIC. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT POINT BUT DID
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NE PA TOWARD SULLIVAN AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NY THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW TO FALL.TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 10'S AND 20'S, SO
RATIOS DO LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN THE TYPICAL 10:1.
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION
MONDAY. A MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONFINE THE
BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO NEAR AND NY OF THE NY THRUWAY. IT
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT A BAND OF SNOW FROM LAKE ERIE WORKS INTO SOME
AREAS NEAR ROUTE 17 WEST OF BINGHAMTON FOR A SHORT TIME. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT BITTER COLD WILL OCCUR WITH BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN HIGHS EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WITH SOME WIND, WIND CHILL VALUES OF -15 TO -25F LOOK POSSIBLE
AS WELL AT TIMES. SNOW RATIOS ACTUALLY MAY BE CLOSER TO 10:1 IF
THE SNOW GROWTH OCCURS BELOW THE DENDRITE ZONE. QPF THOUGH IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. ANY SNOW COVER OR LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW COLD WE GET.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS LINGERING LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
EARLIER TODAY, KEEPING SNOWFALL RESTRICTIONS AT BGM AND ITH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. LOOKING UPSTREAM, MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ITH. THIS MAY ALSO EXTEND DOWN TO BGM, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE BGM TAF.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED EARLY
IN THE MORNING NEAR SYR AND RME, ALLOWING FOR TEMPO IFR VISBY
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING.
MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, EXCEPT AT AVP WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE REGION AFTER 02Z, BRINGING SOME LLWS TO ELM AND SYR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, LLWS BETWEEN 35-45KTS SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY...A WINTRY MIX MAY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...SOME SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/DK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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