471
FXUS61 KBGM 170821
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT SETTLES IN THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
7 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM FOR NEPA
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN NY IN WATER VAPOR. THE NE EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS SOME
ENHANCED SNOWFALL AND AS THAT MOVES THROUGH, SNOW WILL LIKELY
PICK BACK UP AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
HALF INCH OR LESS AS QPF WITH THIS AREA OF SNOW IS PRETTY LIGHT
AT SITES THAT ARE SEEING SNOW.
350 PM UPDATE...
A STEADY BUT LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRESS TO THE EAST AND POCKETS OF DRIER AIR
BEGIN TO MIX IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES CAN LINGER AROUND THE
POCONOS AND FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY THERE
CAN BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS CAN LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES.
ASIDE FROM THE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH,
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CNY
TOMORROW. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS NE PA. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN, THE FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SETTING UP A MILDER AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE AND A BIT OF A BREEZE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. NOT
AS CHILLY TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY FROM THE NYS THRUWAY ON NORTHWARD.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE TRACK IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH IT WOULD BRING SNOWFALL TOTALS TO NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN
THE POCONOS REGION. STILL WAY TOO EARLY AND SOME GUIDANCE HAS
THIS SYSTEM AS A COMPLETE MISS FOR OUR REGION, SO AT THIS TIME,
BEST THING TO DO IS JUST WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST OF HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS ON MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AND LAKE EFFECT FROM
LAKE ERIE MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO IMPACT BINGHAMTON FOR
A SHORT TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE LIGHT,
AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST TOO COLD AND OUTSIDE THE DGZ, SO
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWER. ALSO, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AFTER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AT THIS TIME,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE VERY LIGHT.
FINALLY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THE COLDEST AIR
THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND ONLY SINGLE DIGIT TO TO LOW TEENS
FOR HIGHS EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHEN INCORPORATING
THE WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES OF -15 TO
-25F LOOK VERY ACHIEVABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT SNOWFALL IS LINGERING LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
EARLIER TODAY, KEEPING SNOWFALL RESTRICTIONS AT BGM AND ITH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. LOOKING UPSTREAM, MORE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS AT ITH. THIS MAY ALSO EXTEND DOWN TO BGM, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE BGM TAF.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED EARLY
IN THE MORNING NEAR SYR AND RME, ALLOWING FOR TEMPO IFR VISBY
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING.
MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, EXCEPT AT AVP WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE REGION AFTER 02Z, BRINGING SOME LLWS TO ELM AND SYR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, LLWS BETWEEN 35-45KTS SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY...A WINTRY MIX MAY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...SOME SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/DK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page