839
FXUS61 KBGM 171446
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
946 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
TURNING MILDER TODAY WITH LINGERING FLURRIES TAPERING OFF AND
SOME SUNNY BREAKS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT SETTLES IN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
940 AM UPDATE...
ALLOWED FOR SOME LINGERING FLURRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
MAINLY EAST OF I-81, OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBS AND DEW
POINTS WERE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN PROJECTED, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF I-81, SO BLENDED IN CONSSHORT AND THE NBM90TH PERCENTILE
INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS BOTH WERE CLOSE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
615 AM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED, WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS COVER CNY INTO NEPA AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY, WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH MINIMAL CHANGES MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.
315 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE REGION, HANGING
ON MUCH LONGER THAN GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING EARLIER TODAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO WESTERN NY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS RIPPLING THROUGH THE OUTER EDGE OF AN APPROACHING
RIDGE FROM THE SW. GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE SETUP TONIGHT
VERY WELL SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IS BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS AND SUBTLE HINTS OF SNOW SHOWER TRACK AND
TIMING THAT HAS POPPED UP IN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. ANOTHER 0.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR 1 INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES WHERE WE COULD GET SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL SWITCH FLOW FROM NW TO MORE WESTERLY, CUTTING
OFF MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CNY AND WILL GENERATE
A LOOSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO N ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL MIGRATE NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET AS THE HIGH TAKES OVER. 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WE FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN RECENTLY THANKS TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID 20S.
THE REPRIEVE FROM SNOW DOES NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SCATTERED PRECIP STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO ELEVATION
DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW, AND
COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT, SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO
APPROACH 3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY FROM THE NYS THRUWAY ON NORTHWARD.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE TRACK IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH IT WOULD BRING SNOWFALL TOTALS TO NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN
THE POCONOS REGION. STILL WAY TOO EARLY AND SOME GUIDANCE HAS
THIS SYSTEM AS A COMPLETE MISS FOR OUR REGION, SO AT THIS TIME,
BEST THING TO DO IS JUST WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST OF HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS ON MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AND LAKE EFFECT FROM
LAKE ERIE MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO IMPACT BINGHAMTON FOR
A SHORT TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE LIGHT,
AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST TOO COLD AND OUTSIDE THE DGZ, SO
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWER. ALSO, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AFTER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AT THIS TIME,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE VERY LIGHT.
FINALLY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THE COLDEST AIR
THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND ONLY SINGLE DIGIT TO TO LOW TEENS
FOR HIGHS EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHEN INCORPORATING
THE WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES OF -15 TO
-25F LOOK VERY ACHIEVABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BROUGHT A MIX
OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE
NOT PANNED OUT AS THOUGHT EARLIER TONIGHT SO THEY HAVE BEEN
REMOVED FROM THIS TAF SET. BGM AND ITH SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS WILL
STICK AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SYR AND RME WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES
OVER THE AREA OFF LAKE ONTARIO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN IN
THE AFTERNOON. ELM WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AVP
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR THIS MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A WINTRY MIX MAY BRING SOME RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...SOME SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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