205
FXUS61 KBGM 172052
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
352 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD TONIGHT. A GUSTY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. THE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT SETTLES IN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
350 PM UPDATE...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND THE AREA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE THICKENING BACK UP
AGAIN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE IT
WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
AND MID 20S FOR MOST. AREAS IMMEDIATELY AROUND FINGER LAKES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
THE BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING GIVING WAY TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW INITIALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, THEN TRANSITION TO
ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE HIGH RES CAMS DO SUPPORT THERE BEING
A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE PA AND THE
CATSKILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO POPS GENERALLY TOP OUT AROUND
50% IN THIS AREA TOMORROW VS. LIKELY (>60%) ELSEWHERE. THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THE
ORDER OF A COATING TO AROUND AN INCH, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE TWO TO THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW COMBINED
WITH A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH UPPER
30S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
WINDS SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW NIGHT AND IT
WILL TURN COLDER AGAIN WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF NE PA DROP BACK INTO THE
LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY FROM THE NYS THRUWAY ON NORTHWARD.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THE TRACK IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH IT WOULD BRING SNOWFALL TOTALS TO NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS NE PA AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO WARNING LEVELS IN
THE POCONOS REGION. STILL WAY TOO EARLY AND SOME GUIDANCE HAS
THIS SYSTEM AS A COMPLETE MISS FOR OUR REGION, SO AT THIS TIME,
BEST THING TO DO IS JUST WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST OF HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS ON MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY WESTERLY AND LAKE EFFECT FROM
LAKE ERIE MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO IMPACT BINGHAMTON FOR
A SHORT TIME. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE LIGHT,
AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST TOO COLD AND OUTSIDE THE DGZ, SO
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOWER. ALSO, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AFTER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AT THIS TIME,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE VERY LIGHT.
FINALLY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THE COLDEST AIR
THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP WELL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS DIPPING BELOW ZERO AND ONLY SINGLE DIGIT TO TO LOW TEENS
FOR HIGHS EACH DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHEN INCORPORATING
THE WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURE VALUES OF -15 TO
-25F LOOK VERY ACHIEVABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME LINGERING MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NY
TERMINALS AS FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING TO ALL
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20-23Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT BETWEEN 02-06Z AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOME SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT THE LLWS
COULD BE CLOSER TO 1800 FEET AGL AND MAY ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF AT AVP.
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE NY TERMINALS AND NEAR OR JUST AFTER 18Z
FOR AVP.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING BACK TO
ALL SNOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SOME SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...DK/JTC
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