126
FXUS61 KBGM 190207
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
907 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SYSTEM, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A STRONGER, BUT QUICK MOVING COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGER THIS EVENING. THESE
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DWINDLE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THE COLD
FRONT IS STILL OVER WESTERN NEW YORK SO TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
RATHER STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING BUT SHOULD
FALL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. ISSUED A SPS FOR POTENTIAL ICY SPOTS
GIVEN THE RAPID FALLOFF IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR THE SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT MODELING AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. SO TOTALS WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENT WITH THE EVENING UPDATES.
340 PM UPDATE:
A WEAK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS BRINGING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO AN EARLY (OR
LATE) SEASON EVENT WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, COLDER AIR WILL BE SPILLING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S (WHICH WILL
ACTUALLY BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES).
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AN INITIALLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL
TILT SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW TO PARTS OF OUR AREA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST PA TO THE CATSKILLS. AFTER BEING ALL OVER THE PLACE
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS FINALLY STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
CAN GET (THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ALL). THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE F-GEN FORCING, BUT
THIS MAY END UP BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE JUST EAST OF OUR
REGION. THE ONE THING THAT WILL PREVENT THIS STORM SYSTEM FROM
BEING AN EXTREMELY HIGH IMPACT ONE IS THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE
RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE BULK OF SNOW OCCURRING
WITHIN A 6 HOUR TIMEFRAME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, CURRENTLY EXPECTING 6-8
INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, WAYNE, AND PIKE
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST PA, AS WELL AS SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NY.
WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR
THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE, WITH 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
OTHER COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH (SUSQUEHANNA
AND WYOMING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST PA; DELAWARE COUNTY IN NY),
THOSE AREAS WENT FROM A WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TIER OF COUNTIES FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING, WITH JUST
SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN, LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
SOME READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS
OF NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARDS BY MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTLING IN BEHIND IT. MUCH COLDER AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION SETTING OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES DIRECTING LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION AS WELL AS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH TO FALL DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -23 DEGREES KEEPING HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BELOW ZERO WITH BREEZY WINDS BRINGING WIND
CHILLS ALSO -15 BELOW ZERO. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER ONEIDA COUNTY BEFORE SHOWERS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION
VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. COLD WEATHER HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS, REFRAINED FROM MAKING DECISIONS THIS
UPDATE AS WIND CHILLS ARE BORDERLINE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH LAKE EFFECT LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR REGION. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP
FREE WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING -1 TO -8 DEGREES F. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE TWIN TIERS, THIS COULD DROP
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
OF -15 DEGREES F ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
220 PM UPDATE...
COOL START IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING -1 TO -
6 BELOW FREEZING. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 DEGREES WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION AGAIN. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND A BIT BY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE REGION RETURNS TO JUST ABOUT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
A NEARLY WEEK-LONG LAKE EFFECT EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THOUGH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW
NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL, ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP TWO SEPARATE COASTAL SYSTEMS JUST OUT OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SHIFTS IN THESE TRACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER TIME, SO BOTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA, WITH ONE LAST
BATCH OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO PASS RME AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED INTO
ITH/ELM/BGM, BUT SHOULD FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/FUEL ALT IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE START TO SEE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. ITH SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT
AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND WE GET SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND LIFT COMING OFF CAYUGA LAKE AND INTO THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BGM COULD ALSO HAVE SOME IFR
CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WAS TOO LOW TO PUT
IN THE TAF.
VFR SHOULD RETURN TO SYR/RME IN THE MORNING, LASTING INTO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH AVP SEEING IFR CONDITIONS. BGM COULD ALSO FALL TO IFR BUT
WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS SET OF TAFS, BUT WE SHOULD
HAVE A CLEARER PICTURE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO RETURN TO
ELM/ITH/RME WITH A LOWER PROBABILITY AT SYR DUE TO ITS PLACEMENT
VS THE STORM TRACK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH THE SNOW,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR OCCURRING FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ039-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ057.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BTL/ES
AVIATION...JTC
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