018
FXUS61 KBGM 190759
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
259 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK MOVING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS BELOW 0. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 0
FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
A NEUTRALLY TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DIGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL US EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST HINTS OF A
BAROCLINIC LEAF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE US. A
SURFACE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
PROPAGATE QUICKLY INTO THE NE US ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH
TRYING TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A
JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY, THERE WILL
BE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER EASTERN PA UP THROUGH
EASTERN NY HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THE
850 AND 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN PLACEMENT IN
NEPA THROUGH SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND HUDSON VALLEY OF NY. SNOW
RATIOS WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 20:1 UNDER THIS BAND TO HELP
INCREASE THE SNOW TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF WITH THIS
STORM IS ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THE QUICK FORWARD SPEED OF THE
LOW BUT A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 1+ INCH SNOWFALL RATES IS LIKELY
UNDER THE SNOW BAND THAT DEVELOPS.
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TO THE GREAT
LAKES DO SHOW THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES UP THROUGH 500 MB
THOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SNOW. I-88 REALLY LOOKS
TO BE THE CUT OFF WITH AREAS NW OF THE INTERSTATE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE MUCH SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE POCONOS MAY DO PRETTY
WELL WITH THE NW WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
SOME TOPOGRAPHICAL ENHANCEMENT WHERE RIDGES MAY APPROACH 8 TO
10 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND SO WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE WELL BELOW 0. WITH LITTLE ICE COVER ON THE
GREAT LAKES STILL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF OF ONTARIO
THOUGH WITH THE COLD DRY AIR AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BASICALLY AT THE SURFACE, THE INLAND EXTEND OF THE SNOW MAY BE
LIMITED. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKE AND LIKELY NOT
EXTEND MUCH INTO ONONDAGA OR CAYUGA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
WIND CHILLS ARE LOOKING TO STAY AT OR BELOW 0 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DAY TIME HEATING WITH BREAKS OF SUN
BETWEEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, THE LAKE EFFECT OFF OF BOTH ONTARTIO
AND ERIE WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND FARTHER INLAND SO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHWARD. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THESE BANDS THAT EXTEND INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
220 PM UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARDS BY MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTLING IN BEHIND IT. MUCH COLDER AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION SETTING OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY. FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE WEST AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES DIRECTING LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION AS WELL AS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCH TO FALL DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -23 DEGREES KEEPING HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BELOW ZERO WITH BREEZY WINDS BRINGING WIND
CHILLS ALSO -15 BELOW ZERO. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER ONEIDA COUNTY BEFORE SHOWERS LIFT NORTH OF OUR REGION
VIA SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. COLD WEATHER HAZARDS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS, REFRAINED FROM MAKING DECISIONS THIS
UPDATE AS WIND CHILLS ARE BORDERLINE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH LAKE EFFECT LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR REGION. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP
FREE WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING -1 TO -8 DEGREES F. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE TWIN TIERS, THIS COULD DROP
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
OF -15 DEGREES F ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
220 PM UPDATE...
COOL START IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING -1 TO -
6 BELOW FREEZING. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 DEGREES WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION AGAIN. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND A BIT BY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THE REGION RETURNS TO JUST ABOUT AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
A NEARLY WEEK-LONG LAKE EFFECT EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD THOUGH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW
NORTH OF THE REGION. STILL, ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP TWO SEPARATE COASTAL SYSTEMS JUST OUT OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SHIFTS IN THESE TRACKS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER TIME, SO BOTH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR CIGS PERSIST FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT BGM WHERE IFR CIGS
PERSIST FOR A LITTLE LONGER. DRY AIR IS GOING TO WORK IN THIS
MORNING IN CNY WITH MOST NY TERMINALS LIKELY BECOMING VFR FOR A
BIT AFTER 14Z BEFORE SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE S MAINLY
AFFECTING BGM AND ELM. AVP WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE AT
HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR OR LIFR VIS FROM AROUND 18Z THROUGH 0Z
BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 6Z. SYR AND RME MAY MISS OUT
ON THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS 6Z AS THE LOW DEPARTS THAT MAY CAUSE SOME
MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ039-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR PAZ040-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ057.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BTL/ES
AVIATION...AJG/JTC
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