358
FXUS61 KBGM 192031
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK MOVING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. VERY
COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS BELOW 0. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 0
FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
900 AM UPDATE...
SYSTEM IS MOVING IN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED, THEREFORE ADJUSTED
POPS HIGHER FOR THIS UPDATE. ALSO USED A BLEND OF THE NBM QPF
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BUMP UP AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE MADE
THE USUAL CHANGED TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS USING CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
300 AM UPDATE...
A NEUTRALLY TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS DIGGING
INTO THE CENTRAL US EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST HINTS OF A
BAROCLINIC LEAF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SE US. A
SURFACE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
PROPAGATE QUICKLY INTO THE NE US ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH
TRYING TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH A
JET MAX AT 250 MB MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY, THERE WILL
BE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER EASTERN PA UP THROUGH
EASTERN NY HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THE
850 AND 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN PLACEMENT IN
NEPA THROUGH SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND HUDSON VALLEY OF NY. SNOW
RATIOS WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 20:1 UNDER THIS BAND TO HELP
INCREASE THE SNOW TOTALS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF WITH THIS
STORM IS ON THE LOWER END DUE TO THE QUICK FORWARD SPEED OF THE
LOW BUT A 1 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW OF 1+ INCH SNOWFALL RATES IS LIKELY
UNDER THE SNOW BAND THAT DEVELOPS.
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TO THE GREAT
LAKES DO SHOW THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES UP THROUGH 500 MB
THOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE LOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE SNOW. I-88 REALLY LOOKS
TO BE THE CUT OFF WITH AREAS NW OF THE INTERSTATE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE MUCH SNOW OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE POCONOS MAY DO PRETTY
WELL WITH THE NW WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
SOME TOPOGRAPHICAL ENHANCEMENT WHERE RIDGES MAY APPROACH 8 TO
10 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND SO WIND
CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE WELL BELOW 0. WITH LITTLE ICE COVER ON THE
GREAT LAKES STILL, LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS OFF OF ONTARIO
THOUGH WITH THE COLD DRY AIR AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BASICALLY AT THE SURFACE, THE INLAND EXTEND OF THE SNOW MAY BE
LIMITED. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKE AND LIKELY NOT
EXTEND MUCH INTO ONONDAGA OR CAYUGA COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
WIND CHILLS ARE LOOKING TO STAY AT OR BELOW 0 FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DAY TIME HEATING WITH BREAKS OF SUN
BETWEEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, THE LAKE EFFECT OFF OF BOTH ONTARTIO
AND ERIE WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND FARTHER INLAND SO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHWARD. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THESE BANDS THAT EXTEND INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE:
A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -23C. SKIES WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, BESIDES SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES, AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION, WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 MPH), WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE -10S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE -20S. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME, BUT AFTER
COORDINATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING WFOS TO THE EAST, OPTED TO
HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ONGOING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR,
BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO MAKE IT
SOUTH OF THERE.
SAME STORY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY NOT EVEN GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN AREAS THAT DO
GET ABOVE SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY, BUT
OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT COLDER
THAN MONDAY NIGHT (A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
AREA), BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE, HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THEN ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO (OR NEAR
ZERO) TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 PM UPDATE:
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BEGIN
ON THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THIS MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
APPROACHING (OR EVEN EXCEEDING) THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES MAY OCCASIONALLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA,
BUT TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW MOVES IN TODAY WITH NEPA SEEING MOST OF THE SNOW. AVP WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR OR LIFR VIS FROM
AROUND 18Z THROUGH 0Z BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 6Z. SYR
AND RME MAY MISS OUT ON THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS 6Z AS THE LOW
DEPARTS THAT MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS. COLD DRY
AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT MAY HELP CLEAR OUT CIGS WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF VFR AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ039-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ040-044-047-
048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ057.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/ES
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG/ES
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