414
FXUS61 KBGM 192056
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
356 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN CATSKILLS NEW
YORK THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN TONIGHT.
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILL
REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE AREA WITH FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS REGION. THIS ALLOWED STEADIER SNOW TO FALL LATE
MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW TOTALS WERE SHIFTED
EASTWARDS THIS UPDATE AS THIS SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN TIER PORTION OF NY. A BLEND OF HRRR AND WPC WAS USED
TO SCALE BACK ON THE EXTENT OF QPF. A TIGHT GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED IN TERMS OF TOTALS, WITH AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR HAZARDS, A
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM MONDAY MORNING. IF SYSTEM MOVES OUT SOONER,
HAZARDS MAY BE LIFTED SOONER.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS, THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL RANGE 5-12
KNOTS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 40S AND MUCH COOLER AIR RACING OVER
THE REGION, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. DGZ
CONTINUES TO BE SURFACED BASED, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
AN INLAND EXTENT WITH THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
FOCUS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH EXPECTED IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.
A COLD START IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN NORTHEAST PA IN THE LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS ARE LOOKING TO STAY AT
OR BELOW 0 FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DAY TIME
HEATING WITH BREAKS OF SUN BETWEEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF OF BOTH ONTARTIO AND ERIE WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND FARTHER
INLAND. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR REGION BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NY BY THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE:
A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -23C. SKIES WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, BESIDES SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND ZERO DEGREES, AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN SOME
SPOTS. IN ADDITION, WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 MPH), WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE -10S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE -20S. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME, BUT AFTER
COORDINATING WITH OUR NEIGHBORING WFOS TO THE EAST, OPTED TO
HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ONGOING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR,
BUT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO MAKE IT
SOUTH OF THERE.
SAME STORY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY NOT EVEN GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. EVEN AREAS THAT DO
GET ABOVE SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. THERE WILL ALSO STILL BE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY, BUT
OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT COLDER
THAN MONDAY NIGHT (A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
AREA), BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER, WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL
IN PLACE, HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THEN ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBZERO (OR NEAR
ZERO) TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 PM UPDATE:
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BEGIN
ON THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. THIS MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
APPROACHING (OR EVEN EXCEEDING) THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES MAY OCCASIONALLY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA,
BUT TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGS PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW MOVES IN TODAY WITH NEPA SEEING MOST OF THE SNOW. AVP WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR OR LIFR VIS FROM
AROUND 18Z THROUGH 0Z BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS 6Z. SYR
AND RME MAY MISS OUT ON THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW
BUT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS 6Z AS THE LOW
DEPARTS THAT MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS. COLD DRY
AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT MAY HELP CLEAR OUT CIGS WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF VFR AFTER 6Z TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KSYR-KRME.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ039-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ040-044-047-
048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ057.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG/ES
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