213
FXUS61 KBGM 200803
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL EAST OF I-81, AND SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN
TONIGHT. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW ZERO.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
930 PM UPDATE...
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW HAS LEFT LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA
COUNTIES SO THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WYOMING AND SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES
AS SNOW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SO WE
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP AND RE-EVALUATE LATER.
SNOW WILL REMAIN EAST OF I-81 IN NY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING TO THE NE BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS, WINDS, AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
550 PM UPDATE...
A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SULLIVAN AND
PIKE COUNTIES, DROPPING SNOW AT 2IN PER HOUR AND CAUSING MOST
OF THE ROADS IN THE AREA TO BECOME QUICKLY SNOW COVERED. DRY AND
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SNOW FROM REACHING TOO FAR WEST
INTO CNY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER, AS SHOWN BY DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NEAR BINGHAMTON, ITHACA AND NORWICH ARE BETWEEN 15 TO 18
DEGREES. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF I-81, CLOSER TO THE
CATSKILLS. MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO POPS, WINDS AND SKY COVER
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND UPDATED GUIDANCE.
330 PM UPDATE...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILL
REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING CONTINUES TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE AREA WITH FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS REGION. THIS ALLOWED STEADIER SNOW TO FALL LATE
MORNING THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW TOTALS WERE SHIFTED
EASTWARDS THIS UPDATE AS THIS SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN TIER PORTION OF NY. A BLEND OF HRRR AND WPC WAS USED
TO SCALE BACK ON THE EXTENT OF QPF. A TIGHT GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED IN TERMS OF TOTALS, WITH AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR HAZARDS, A
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM MONDAY MORNING. IF SYSTEM MOVES OUT SOONER,
HAZARDS MAY BE LIFTED SOONER.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARDS, THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL RANGE 5-12
KNOTS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO. WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 40S AND MUCH COOLER AIR RACING OVER
THE REGION, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. DGZ
CONTINUES TO BE SURFACED BASED, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF
AN INLAND EXTENT WITH THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
FOCUS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH EXPECTED IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.
A COLD START IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN NORTHEAST PA IN THE LOW 20S. WIND CHILLS ARE LOOKING TO STAY AT
OR BELOW 0 FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DAY TIME
HEATING WITH BREAKS OF SUN BETWEEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, THE LAKE
EFFECT OFF OF BOTH ONTARTIO AND ERIE WILL BE ABLE TO EXTEND FARTHER
INLAND. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR REGION BEFORE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NY BY THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
300 AM UPDATE
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE ARCTIC COLD TUESDAY
NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT FEATURES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW, 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -23C AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 492DM
OVER CENTRAL NY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SCRAPING NW STEUBEN AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL TEND TO BE MAINLY CLEAR AS A SURFACE HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PA LATER AT NIGHT. OVERALL, AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH, THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG COOLING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE NBM10TH AND NBM25TH
PERCENTILES, AS THESE TYPES OF SETUPS USUALLY ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
COOLING, WELL BELOW THE OPERATIONAL NBM GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 0 TO -10F IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW SPOTS COULD GET EVEN
COLDER; ESPECIALLY IF IT DECOUPLES LATE AT NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP THE WIND CHILLS FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME, BUT EVEN LIGHT
BREEZES AT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ADD TO THE COLD; AND WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WHERE WINDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING ELEVATED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT STARTS TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AROUND -19C BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL.
THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT STILL VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO PERHAPS LOW 10S.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO RACE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT; JUST
HOW FAST THESE CLOUDS ROLL IN WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. IT'S POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES REALLY DROP OFF VERY FAST
IN THE EVENING IF THE CLOUDS DON'T ARRIVE IN TIME. FOR NOW, HINTED
AT THIS WITH SOME COLD READINGS DOWN TO -5F EAST OF I-81 AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE 0 FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND MAY INCREASE UP TO 10 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION; THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP LATE AT
NIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT AS
THIS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
THURSDAY IS NOT AS COLD WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF
AFTERNOON SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ZONAL, COLD WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER
QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
UP NORTH, OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL COLD, WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
300 AM UPDATE
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO BUILDING AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL
MEAN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND PERHAPS JUST A SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER OR
FLURRY AROUND; SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY WELL OFF TO OUR
NORTH IN CANADA. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NY,
BUT ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY AND STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT MONDAY, SO FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE
BLEND (NBM) FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS GAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO CONSIST OF PREVAILING
VFR WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR FROM KITH-KSYR AND
KRME. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PASSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY CAUSING RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR AND KRME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JAB
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