585
FXUS61 KBGM 201130
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE DEEPER INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A CONTINENTAL-ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BEYOND.
IN THE NEAREST PERIOD TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER
INTO THE TEENS ACROSS CNY WHILE ATTEMPTING TO TOUCH 20 OR SO ACROSS
NEPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER DOWN THE
SCALE TO NEAR ZERO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD IN FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF CNY WEST OF I-81 AND
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. STRAGGLING FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL ALONG THE NORTHER TIER COUNTIES OF PA. TONIGHT WILL BE
TRICKY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS FURTHER, LIFTING SNOW PLUMES
NORTH OF CNY AND ALSO THE CLOUDINESS. CLEARING SKIES OVER
RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW SPELLS TROUBLE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY
CAN FALL OFF THE CLIFF GIVING A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL FOR OUR
TEMP FORECASTS. HAVE HEDGED A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA AND THE TWIN TIERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
CLEARING TRENDS IS BEST. OFFSETTING THIS WILL BE THE WIND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT BREEZES WILL REMAIN UP
ENOUGH TO STOP A TEMPERATURE FREE FALL, BUT ALSO CREATE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. TONIGHT ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT THIS WEEK, BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COLD WEATHER
THRESHOLDS THAT WE ARE ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA FOR TONIGHT, CARRYING RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE FOCUS ON THOSE LATER PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
300 AM UPDATE
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE ARCTIC COLD TUESDAY
NIGHT, WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT FEATURES A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW, 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -23C AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 492DM
OVER CENTRAL NY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES SCRAPING NW STEUBEN AND ONEIDA COUNTIES, OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL TEND TO BE MAINLY CLEAR AS A SURFACE HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PA LATER AT NIGHT. OVERALL, AS SURFACE WINDS
DIMINISH, THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG COOLING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE NBM10TH AND NBM25TH
PERCENTILES, AS THESE TYPES OF SETUPS USUALLY ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
COOLING, WELL BELOW THE OPERATIONAL NBM GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 0 TO -10F IN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW SPOTS COULD GET EVEN
COLDER; ESPECIALLY IF IT DECOUPLES LATE AT NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP THE WIND CHILLS FROM BECOMING TOO EXTREME, BUT EVEN LIGHT
BREEZES AT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ADD TO THE COLD; AND WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT -10 TO -20F WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
WHERE WINDS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING ELEVATED. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT STARTS TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AROUND -19C BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL.
THIS SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT STILL VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO PERHAPS LOW 10S.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO RACE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT; JUST
HOW FAST THESE CLOUDS ROLL IN WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES. IT'S POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES REALLY DROP OFF VERY FAST
IN THE EVENING IF THE CLOUDS DON'T ARRIVE IN TIME. FOR NOW, HINTED
AT THIS WITH SOME COLD READINGS DOWN TO -5F EAST OF I-81 AND SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE 0 FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND MAY INCREASE UP TO 10 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION; THIS WILL HELP TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP LATE AT
NIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK OUT AS
THIS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
THURSDAY IS NOT AS COLD WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO BREAKS OF
AFTERNOON SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ZONAL, COLD WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER
QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
UP NORTH, OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND STILL COLD, WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
300 AM UPDATE
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO BUILDING AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL
MEAN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND PERHAPS JUST A SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER OR
FLURRY AROUND; SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW MOVES BY WELL OFF TO OUR
NORTH IN CANADA. THIS COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NY,
BUT ALSO ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY AND STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT MONDAY, SO FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE
BLEND (NBM) FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS GAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERALLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW PLUMES WILL TRANSITION SCATTERED
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS INTO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM SOUTH-NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WINDS LIGHT THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST AND GUSTY TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH PASSING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS POTENTIALLY CAUSING RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR AND KRME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JAB
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