297
FXUS61 KBGM 202333
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE DEEPER INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY
AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
555 PM UPDATE:
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADJUST SKY
COVER FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY (SLIGHT INCREASE FOR THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY).
2PM UPDATE...
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS OUT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DIP BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WIND
CHILLS BELOW -15 ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE COLDER, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL DIP TO -10F TO -15F IN SOME AREAS WITH MOST OF THE REGION
SEEING LOWS OF ZERO TO -5F.
FINALLY, THROUGH THIS EVENING, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION OUT
OF THE WEST. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE
TOMORROW, THE WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING FROM THE NYS THRUWAY ON
NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
COLD AIR MASS LINGERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH -23 DEGREES C AT 850
MB. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES -10 BELOW ZERO BEFORE SUNRISE, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS BY THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB START TO RISE TO -18 C BY WENDESDAY
EVENING WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT AS THIS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF OUR REGION CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COLD THURSDAY MORNING
RANGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS UP NORTH, OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING IN
NORTHEAST PA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CLEARING IN NORTHEAST PA COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL COLDER
THAN FORECASTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DRY
AIR THROUGH THE LEVELS WITH A BIT OF SATURATION IN THE DGZ FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MOSTLY EXPECTING A SCATTERED SHOWER OR FLURRY
IN THE PERIPHERY. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH AN ATTEMPT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. DESPITE THIS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WITH A POTENTIAL SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT MONDAY,
SO FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE BLEND (NBM) FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD (AT
LEAST THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY). THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A PASSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER AT KRME OR KSYR,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG
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