337
FXUS61 KBGM 210816
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE DEEPER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
315 AM UPDATE
MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, ARCTIC AIR MASS
SETTLING OVER THE REGION. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
AREAWIDE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY; WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10
BELOW TO 24 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. IT IS ALREADY STARTING OFF
VERY COLD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
10 BELOW ZERO AND 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH -23C AIR AT
850MB OVER THE REGION, IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO +5 TO +15F FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN
NORTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES OR SHOWERS TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF CNY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF OF LAKE ERIE; WITH MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK,
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT HOLD STEADY AND THE CORE OF THE COLD MOVES
OVERHEAD. A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE
AT NIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS.
THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES EXPECTED LOWS DOWN BELOW
THE NBM10TH PERCENTILE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE, BASED ON HOW LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING. TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 0 TO 15 BELOW ZERO! ANY LIGHT WINDS THAT DO OCCUR WILL
LOWER THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. THE FLOW BRIEFLY
TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THIS LOOKS TO
SPREAD SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY, MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 WHERE 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT POWDERY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN MODERATING AT 850MB LATE IN THE DAY; BACK TOWARD -18C BY
SUNSET. HOWEVER, AFTER SUCH A COLD START, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-10S. AFTER
A FEW MORNING SNOW FLURRIES NEAR SYRACUSE AND NORTHWEST OF ROME, IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
COLD AIR MASS LINGERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH -23 DEGREES C AT 850
MB. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES -10 BELOW ZERO BEFORE SUNRISE, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS BY THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB START TO RISE TO -18 C BY WENDESDAY
EVENING WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS EXTREME TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT AS THIS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF OUR REGION CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT AS COLD THURSDAY MORNING
RANGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. THERE COULD BE A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS UP NORTH, OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLE CLEARING IN
NORTHEAST PA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CLEARING IN NORTHEAST PA COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL COLDER
THAN FORECASTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DRY
AIR THROUGH THE LEVELS WITH A BIT OF SATURATION IN THE DGZ FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MOSTLY EXPECTING A SCATTERED SHOWER OR FLURRY
IN THE PERIPHERY. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH AN ATTEMPT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. DESPITE THIS SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. BEHIND
THIS FEATURE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WITH A POTENTIAL SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT MONDAY,
SO FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE ENSEMBLE BLEND (NBM) FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
1250 AM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD (AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY). THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRME. SOME SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY, AND WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT, WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A PASSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER AT KRME OR KSYR, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN VERY BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG/MJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page