163
FXUS61 KBGM 211723
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1223 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE DEEPER INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
835 AM UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LAKE EFFECT BAND STAYING NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR THE BAND TO DIP SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. WITH THAT SAID, ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ONEIDA, HOWEVER 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
640 AM UPDATE
TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED DOWN WELL BELOW ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE NOTABLE LOCATIONS WITH
IMPRESSIVELY COLD READINGS ARE -19F AT MORRISVILLE NY, -13F IN
HAMILTON NY, -11F CORTLAND NY, -13F ANDES NY, -16F ELDRED NY,-12F
DEPOSIT NY, -11 LENOX TOWNSHIP PA, -14F AT THE STILL WATER DAM
IN PA, -10F IN JERMYN PA, -9F FACTORYVILLE AND MANY OTHER
LOCATIONS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND -10F EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THIS LATEST TEMPERATURE
DATA AND ALSO UPDATED TO LOWER TONIGHT'S FORECAST LOWS BASED ON
THE TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. IF SKIES DO IN FACT REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR, AND WINDS LIGHT...THEN TONIGHT SHOULD BE EVEN A
FEW DEGREES COLDER.
315 AM UPDATE
MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BITTER COLD, ARCTIC AIR MASS
SETTLING OVER THE REGION. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
AREAWIDE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY; WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10
BELOW TO 24 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. IT IS ALREADY STARTING OFF
VERY COLD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
10 BELOW ZERO AND 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH -23C AIR AT
850MB OVER THE REGION, IT WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...
DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO +5 TO +15F FOR
HIGHS TODAY. MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN
NORTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES OR SHOWERS TO EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF CNY THIS
AFTERNOON OFF OF LAKE ERIE; WITH MINIMAL TO NO ACCUMULATION.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK,
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT HOLD STEADY AND THE CORE OF THE COLD MOVES
OVERHEAD. A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH ALSO BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE
AT NIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR AND ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE, BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS.
THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES EXPECTED LOWS DOWN BELOW
THE NBM10TH PERCENTILE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE, BASED ON HOW LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING. TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM 0 TO 15 BELOW ZERO! ANY LIGHT WINDS THAT DO OCCUR WILL
LOWER THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE. THE FLOW BRIEFLY
TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THIS LOOKS TO
SPREAD SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY, MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 WHERE 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT POWDERY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES DO
BEGIN MODERATING AT 850MB LATE IN THE DAY; BACK TOWARD -18C BY
SUNSET. HOWEVER, AFTER SUCH A COLD START, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-10S. AFTER
A FEW MORNING SNOW FLURRIES NEAR SYRACUSE AND NORTHWEST OF ROME, IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15 C IN THE EVENING RISE CLOSER
TO -10 C PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND NEAR 0 DEGREES
TOWARD THE TUG HILL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SEVERAL DEGREES THOUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH THE SLIGHT MODERATION IN 850MB TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY AND AN
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE WNW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW
COMING BACK OFF OF THE LAKES, THIS CAN LEAD TO A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES, MAINLY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS STEUBEN COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T
BE QUITE AS COLD THURSDAY REACHING THE LOWER AND MID 20S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WILL ENHANCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS.
NBM WAS LARGELY DRY THIS DAY SO POPS WERE TAKEN UP TO 30-40% FOR
NOW OVER PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
HIGHS FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF OTHER DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY FEATURE
IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT, SO RAN WITH THE NBM BEYOND SUNDAY FOR
NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DO LOOK MORE SEASONABLE IN THE LONG RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE MID 30S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF RME, BUT THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK
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