397
FXUS61 KBGM 211838
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARMER, BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DIP BELOW OR
NEAR ZERO. THERE WILL FINALLY BE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
130 PM UPDATE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS LITTLE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
SKIES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. ALSO, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WITH THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION, IT WILL BE A GREAT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALWAYS FAILS TO CAPTURE THE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THESE SET UPS.
THEREFORE, IN THESE USUAL COLD SPOTS, STARTED WITH THE NBM10TH
PERCENTILE AND DROPPED DOWN SOME LOCATIONS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
THAT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS
COME IN AT 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO! HOWEVER, WITH WINDS LIKELY
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING, WIND CHILL VALUES AREN'T AS MUCH OF A
FACTOR TONIGHT, SO NO NEED TO UPGRADE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TO A WARNING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE LAKE ONTARIO
TO BRIEFLY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
START MODERATING AT 850MB LATE IN THE DAY WITH RIDGING LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NY. HOWEVER, AFTER SUCH A COLD START, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID-10S. AFTER A FEW MORNING SNOW FLURRIES NEAR
SYRACUSE AND NORTHWEST OF ROME, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AND 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15 C IN THE EVENING RISE CLOSER
TO -10 C PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY, IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND NEAR 0 DEGREES
TOWARD THE TUG HILL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE SEVERAL DEGREES THOUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH THE SLIGHT MODERATION IN 850MB TEMPS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY AND AN
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE WNW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW
COMING BACK OFF OF THE LAKES, THIS CAN LEAD TO A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES, MAINLY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS STEUBEN COUNTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WON'T
BE QUITE AS COLD THURSDAY REACHING THE LOWER AND MID 20S. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA WILL ENHANCE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS.
NBM WAS LARGELY DRY THIS DAY SO POPS WERE TAKEN UP TO 30-40% FOR
NOW OVER PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
HIGHS FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF OTHER DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY FEATURE
IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT, SO RAN WITH THE NBM BEYOND SUNDAY FOR
NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DO LOOK MORE SEASONABLE IN THE LONG RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE MID 30S ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF RME, BUT THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK
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