683
FXUS61 KBGM 212341
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARMER, BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DIP BELOW OR
NEAR ZERO. THERE WILL FINALLY BE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
620 PM UPDATE...
A FEW PUFFS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS CLEAR. SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. SO
WHILE THE WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LOW, THE ACTUAL TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND VERY
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT GREAT AT CAPTURING HOW COLD IT CAN GET SO MANUAL
EDITS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TO TRY AND CAPTURE LOWER TEMPS
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT IT WILL STILL PROBABLY BE COLDER IN OUR
NORMAL COLD SPOTS WHERE -20 TO -25 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
130 PM UPDATE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS LITTLE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
SKIES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. ALSO, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WITH THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION, IT WILL BE A GREAT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALWAYS FAILS TO CAPTURE THE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THESE SET UPS.
THEREFORE, IN THESE USUAL COLD SPOTS, STARTED WITH THE NBM10TH
PERCENTILE AND DROPPED DOWN SOME LOCATIONS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
THAT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS
COME IN AT 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO! HOWEVER, WITH WINDS LIKELY
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING, WIND CHILL VALUES AREN'T AS MUCH OF A
FACTOR TONIGHT, SO NO NEED TO UPGRADE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TO A WARNING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE LAKE ONTARIO
TO BRIEFLY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
START MODERATING AT 850MB LATE IN THE DAY WITH RIDGING LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NY. HOWEVER, AFTER SUCH A COLD START, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID-10S. AFTER A FEW MORNING SNOW FLURRIES NEAR
SYRACUSE AND NORTHWEST OF ROME, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
150 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARMER AIR, AT LEAST WARMER
RELATIVE TO THE CURRENT COLD SNAP. IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20S, THOUGH
BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME, BUT FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
CHANGE IN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO EXTEND INTO CNY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS PASSING TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AS COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MAIN SNOW BAND TO EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN TIER. FLOW BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DRIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS PERIOD.
WHILE EXACT TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THIS FORECAST HAS 1
TO 3 INCHES FROM ONONDAGA COUNTY ACROSS TO ONEIDA COUNTY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
150 PM UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE, AT LEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE COLDER AIR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION T850 WILL
STILL BE AROUND -10 DEG C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY FLOW
AND KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AND WHAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. THE GFS HAS A SYSTEM MOVING UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WHILE
GUIDANCE LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE MULTIPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE
NORTH. NO STRONG SIGNALS EITHER WAY CAN BE SEEN IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SO THIS FORECAST WILL STICK WITH NBM FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANGES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
MOVE INTO THE RME AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. IF SHOWERS/FLURRIES
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL, NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPK
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