079
FXUS61 KBGM 220549
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1249 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME TONIGHT, BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. THERE WILL
FINALLY BE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1230 AM UPDATE...
TOUCHED UP TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE ALREADY -10 TO -17F; SUCH AS
CORTLAND, NORWICH, ITHACA, HAMILTON, MORRISVILLE AND HARFORD
NY. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY -7 TO -14F IN NORTHEAST PA AS
WELL. BINGHAMTON, JOHNSON CITY AND VESTAL ARE RIGHT AROUND 0
DEGREES AT THIS TIME, AND SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN -3 AND -5F IN
THE RIVER VALLEY THERE BY DAYBREAK.TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
FALL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE A LAKE BAND WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS; ESPECIALLY FROM ROME NORTHWEST.
930 PM UPDATE...
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS STARTING TO RAMP UP AS AREAS START TO SEE
CALM WINDS DEVELOPING. FOR EXAMPLE, IN THE LAST 3 HOURS, THE
TEMPERATURE AT ITHACA AIRPORT AND IN CORTLAND HAS FALLEN FROM
4F TO -8F. THIS BLEW PAST THE MODELED LOW OF -5F AND -6F FOR
THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, MANUALLY ADJUSTED TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA WHERE COOLING IS RAMPING UP. AS BEFORE, SEVERAL OF OUR
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS COULD SEE LOWS TONIGHT AROUND -20F, WITH
AN ISOLATED -25F POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS CAN STAY CALM
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
620 PM UPDATE...
A FEW PUFFS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, BUT MOST OF THE
AREA IS CLEAR. SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. SO
WHILE THE WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LOW, THE ACTUAL TEMPS
SHOULD BE VERY COLD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND VERY
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT GREAT AT CAPTURING HOW COLD IT CAN GET SO MANUAL
EDITS WERE MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS TO TRY AND CAPTURE LOWER TEMPS
IN THE VALLEYS, BUT IT WILL STILL PROBABLY BE COLDER IN OUR
NORMAL COLD SPOTS WHERE -20 TO -25 IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
130 PM UPDATE
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS LITTLE ARCTIC OUTBREAK FOR OUR
REGION WILL BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
SKIES FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. ALSO, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WITH THE SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION, IT WILL BE A GREAT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MODEL GUIDANCE ALWAYS FAILS TO CAPTURE THE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THESE SET UPS.
THEREFORE, IN THESE USUAL COLD SPOTS, STARTED WITH THE NBM10TH
PERCENTILE AND DROPPED DOWN SOME LOCATIONS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
THAT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS
COME IN AT 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO! HOWEVER, WITH WINDS LIKELY
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING, WIND CHILL VALUES AREN'T AS MUCH OF A
FACTOR TONIGHT, SO NO NEED TO UPGRADE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
TO A WARNING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE LAKE ONTARIO
TO BRIEFLY DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO BRING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TOMORROW, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
START MODERATING AT 850MB LATE IN THE DAY WITH RIDGING LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NY. HOWEVER, AFTER SUCH A COLD START, AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID-10S. AFTER A FEW MORNING SNOW FLURRIES NEAR
SYRACUSE AND NORTHWEST OF ROME, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND
MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
150 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARMER AIR, AT LEAST WARMER
RELATIVE TO THE CURRENT COLD SNAP. IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20S, THOUGH
BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME, BUT FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
CHANGE IN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO EXTEND INTO CNY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS PASSING TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AS COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MAIN SNOW BAND TO EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN TIER. FLOW BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DRIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS PERIOD.
WHILE EXACT TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THIS FORECAST HAS 1
TO 3 INCHES FROM ONONDAGA COUNTY ACROSS TO ONEIDA COUNTY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
150 PM UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE, AT LEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE COLDER AIR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION T850 WILL
STILL BE AROUND -10 DEG C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY FLOW
AND KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AND WHAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. THE GFS HAS A SYSTEM MOVING UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WHILE
GUIDANCE LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE MULTIPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE
NORTH. NO STRONG SIGNALS EITHER WAY CAN BE SEEN IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SO THIS FORECAST WILL STICK WITH NBM FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANGES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
1245 AM UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
MOVE INTO THE RME AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z; FOR NOW DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS, BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND IF ANY STEADIER
LIGHT SNOW CAN DEVELOP HERE.
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR AREAWIDE, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BKN TO OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH CLOUD BASES LIKELY BETWEEN 070 AND
120 FEET AGL.
WINDS ARE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEY START OFF
WESTERLY, THEN TURN SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM
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