197
FXUS61 KBGM 220816
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
316 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE SOME TONIGHT, BUT STILL A FEW
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. THERE WILL
FINALLY BE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY,FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE
FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
315 AM UPDATE
QUIET AND VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE UNTIL NOON TODAY; EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM +5F IN SYRACUSE TO AS LOW AS 20
BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDEST SHELTERED VALLEYS OF CNY AND NE PA.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT, UNDER 7 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE
LIGHT BREEZY CAN STILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN BETWEEN 15 TO 25
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ONEIDA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING A MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYER RACING INTO THE
AREA, CAUSING FILTERED SUNSHINE AND EVENTUALLY MORE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH THIS
AFTERNOON; ONLY BETWEEN 8 TO 15 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTH WIND AT 4-
12 MPH OVERNIGHT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL DROP BETWEEN 0 AND +10F FOR LOWS OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF
WE SEE INTERMITTENT CLEARING SKIES. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA; BUT IT
COULD BE CLOSE (0 TO 10 BELOW, ISOLATED TO 14 BELOW) AND THIS IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON FOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
MORNING CLOUDS GIVEWAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO AROUND -11C, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 10S TO MID-20S ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, AND THOSE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
150 PM UPDATE...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARMER AIR, AT LEAST WARMER
RELATIVE TO THE CURRENT COLD SNAP. IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY START
TO THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20S, THOUGH
BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME, BUT FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
CHANGE IN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO EXTEND INTO CNY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THIS PASSING TROUGH MAY ENHANCE THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
AS COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE MAIN SNOW BAND TO EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN TIER. FLOW BECOMES WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
DRIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THIS PERIOD.
WHILE EXACT TOTALS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THIS FORECAST HAS 1
TO 3 INCHES FROM ONONDAGA COUNTY ACROSS TO ONEIDA COUNTY. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS STEADIER SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
150 PM UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE, AT LEAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. DESPITE COLDER AIR MOVING OUT OF THE REGION T850 WILL
STILL BE AROUND -10 DEG C. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WESTERLY FLOW
AND KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND,
THERE IS LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE AND WHAT WILL TAKE
PLACE. THE GFS HAS A SYSTEM MOVING UP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WHILE
GUIDANCE LIKE THE ECMWF HAVE MULTIPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE
NORTH. NO STRONG SIGNALS EITHER WAY CAN BE SEEN IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SO THIS FORECAST WILL STICK WITH NBM FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANGES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND
20S.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
1245 AM UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY
NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
MOVE INTO THE RME AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z; FOR NOW DID NOT
INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS, BUT MAY NEED TO AMEND IF ANY STEADIER
LIGHT SNOW CAN DEVELOP HERE.
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR AREAWIDE, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BKN TO OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH CLOUD BASES LIKELY BETWEEN 070 AND
120 FEET AGL.
WINDS ARE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEY START OFF
WESTERLY, THEN TURN SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM
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