874  
FXUS61 KBGM 221427  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
927 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.  
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING.  
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE SOME TONIGHT, BUT STILL A FEW  
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO. THERE WILL  
FINALLY BE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY,FRIDAY  
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE  
FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
925 AM UPDATE...  
 
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON-TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
AREA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES, AS THEY ARE  
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THEY  
ARE TAKING LONGER TO CLIMB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, STILL LOOKING  
AT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE  
REGION.  
 
640 AM UPDATE  
 
MATCHED THE LATEST TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS TO  
UPDATE THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND MAKE SURE IT WAS ON TRACK;  
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TEMPERATURES DID DROP EVEN A  
LITTLE LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED WITH NUMEROUS SITES IN CNY  
AND NE PA NOW AS LOW AS -5 TO -15F...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST  
SPOTS BETWEEN -15 AND -20F AT THIS TIME! STILL WATER DAM IN  
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY PA HAS REACHED -21F, ROXBURY IN DELAWARE  
COUNTY ALSO -21F AND THE CORNELL SITE NEAR HARFORD NY REACH -22F...  
THESE ARE THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR, AND TEMPERATURES MAY  
DROP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK. EVEN THE CITY  
OF BINGHAMTON HAS DROPPED TO -6F AT THIS HOUR, SCRANTON/WILKES-  
BARRE IS BETWEEN -6 TO -9F IN THE VALLEY; SYRACUSE IS THE  
MILDEST LOCATION (RELATIVELY) COMING IN AT +3 TO +7F ACROSS THE  
CITY. THIS IS TURNING OUT TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS IN  
SEVERAL YEARS. THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THEREFORE WIND CHILL IS  
NOT MUCH OF AN EXACERBATING FACTOR, BUT WINDS COULD GET UP TO  
AROUND 5 MPH BY MID-MORNING.  
 
315 AM UPDATE  
 
QUIET AND VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY  
REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE UNTIL NOON TODAY; EARLY MORNING  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM +5F IN SYRACUSE TO AS LOW AS 20  
BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDEST SHELTERED VALLEYS OF CNY AND NE PA.  
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT, UNDER 7 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THE  
LIGHT BREEZY CAN STILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN BETWEEN 15 TO 25  
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO WEST-CENTRAL  
ONEIDA COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY  
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON MODEL GUIDANCE  
IS SHOWING A MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYER RACING INTO THE  
AREA, CAUSING FILTERED SUNSHINE AND EVENTUALLY MORE OVERCAST  
CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH THIS  
AFTERNOON; ONLY BETWEEN 8 TO 15 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
WITH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND A GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTH WIND AT 4-  
12 MPH OVERNIGHT IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL  
STILL DROP BETWEEN 0 AND +10F FOR LOWS OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF  
WE SEE INTERMITTENT CLEARING SKIES. AT THIS TIME MINIMUM WIND CHILLS  
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA; BUT IT  
COULD BE CLOSE (0 TO 10 BELOW, ISOLATED TO 14 BELOW) AND THIS IS  
SOMETHING TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON FOR FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.  
 
MORNING CLOUDS GIVEWAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. 850MB  
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO AROUND -11C, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR DAYTIME  
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 10S TO MID-20S ACROSS THE AREA. NO  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, AND THOSE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL  
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
340 AM UPDATE...  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A  
RESULT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING  
DRIFT SOUTH INTO ONEIDA COUNTY AND TOWARD THE NYS THRUWAY  
CORRIDOR BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE  
THRUWAY CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO  
THE CATSKILLS, WHILE SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD EXTEND  
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. POPS  
WERE NEARLY NON- EXISTENT FROM THE NBM FRIDAY, SO THEY WERE  
INCREASED IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS  
OVER PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTIES.  
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW  
TEENS WITH MID TEENS AROUND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE  
SYRACUSE METRO. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.  
 
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT,  
WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE WSW AND THE LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.  
SNOWFALL TOTALS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE  
A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA  
COUNTIES, BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A  
MORE ROBUST SNOW BAND WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW FORMS  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGELY DRY DAY OUT AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST  
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
340 AM UPDATE...  
 
THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNY BEFORE  
EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY INTO THE TWIN TIERS  
AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A MILDER DAY  
RELATIVELY SPEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.  
BEYOND SUNDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE  
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH REGARDS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THE  
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. ENSEMBLES  
SUPPORT A DISTURBANCE PASSING BY NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE AREA ON  
MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER FEATURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN  
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW  
SHOWERS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE NBM FOR NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK  
WITH POPS GENERALLY 20-40%.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID  
20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
645 AM UPDATE  
 
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO  
HAVE RETRACTED BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO, LARGELY SPARING THE  
ROME AREA ANYTHING APPRECIABLE; BESIDES PERHAPS JUST A FEW SNOW  
FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING (NO RESTRICTIONS).  
 
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR AREAWIDE, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES  
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING BKN TO OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH CLOUD BASES LIKELY BETWEEN 080 AND  
140 FEET AGL. THESE BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR.  
 
WINDS ARE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEY START OFF  
WESTERLY, THEN TURN SOUTHWEST BY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TURN  
SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF  
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-  
044-047-048-072.  
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-  
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM  
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM  
SHORT TERM...DK  
LONG TERM...DK  
AVIATION...MJM  
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