008
FXUS61 KBGM 221911
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EST WED JAN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME TONIGHT, BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW ZERO. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TOMORROW, FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
210 PM UPDATE
IT'S A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST AREAS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
WITH CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT,
BUT A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS MAY STILL DIP TO OR JUST BELOW
ZERO BY TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
SPOTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 20S. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER, TOMORROW NIGHT, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AGAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WILL AGAIN HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
DRIFT SOUTH INTO ONEIDA COUNTY AND TOWARD THE NYS THRUWAY
CORRIDOR BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE
THRUWAY CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO
THE CATSKILLS, WHILE SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ERIE COULD EXTEND
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. POPS
WERE NEARLY NON- EXISTENT FROM THE NBM FRIDAY, SO THEY WERE
INCREASED IN THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTIES.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS WITH MID TEENS AROUND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO THE
SYRACUSE METRO. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT,
WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE WSW AND THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE
A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES, BUT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A
MORE ROBUST SNOW BAND WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER SNOW FORMS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGELY DRY DAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CNY BEFORE
EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY INTO THE TWIN TIERS
AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A MILDER DAY
RELATIVELY SPEAKING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH REGARDS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES. ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT A DISTURBANCE PASSING BY NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER FEATURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE NBM FOR NOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH POPS GENERALLY 20-40%.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID
20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK
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