327
FXUS61 KBGM 230547
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME TONIGHT, BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL DROP TO OR JUST BELOW ZERO. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TOMORROW, FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND. VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1240 AM UPDATE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING, PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING LIKE
LAST NIGHT. AGAIN, ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT OVERALL IT REMAINS
WELL ON TRACK.
210 PM UPDATE
IT'S A BRIGHT AND SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST AREAS. GOOD NEWS IS THAT
RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
WITH CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT,
BUT A FEW OF THE COLDER SPOTS MAY STILL DIP TO OR JUST BELOW
ZERO BY TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
SPOTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 20S. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. HOWEVER, TOMORROW NIGHT, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AGAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WILL AGAIN HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE NYS
THRUWAY CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. STEADIER SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE DAY AS THERE WILL BE SOME OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. SOME SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN THE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH
SLIGHTLY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA
AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE DAY PRIOR. HOWEVER,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
BOTH DAYS. NIGHTLY TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BACK IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BUT THEN IMPROVE TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AS TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
215 PM UPDATE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTH, BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 IN CNY ON SUNDAY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY EXTEND DOWN INTO NEPA AS WELL. THIS WILL BE ONE OF MANY
WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH EACH SYSTEM,
MAINLY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. AS WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THERE WILL BE ON-AND-OFF CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS EACH DAY TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE
COLD AIR MASS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH A QUICK SURGE OF COLDER AIR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THIS,
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS NOT EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 20S AND LOW 30S AND DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
1246 AM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT RME AT THE VERY END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRIDAY) AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT
WITH 12-18 KT GUSTS RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CLOUD BASES EXPAND OVER CENTRAL NY AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DEVELOP IN A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW. OCCASIONAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE; ESPECIALLY
SYR AND RME WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...ES/MJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page