465
FXUS61 KBGM 230812
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
312 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
SEASONABLE AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH
JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY
MONDAY, WITH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RISING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MONDAY FEATURES PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
310 AM UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER TODAY, WITH SEASONABLE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO DAYS THOUGH. MORNING
CLOUDS GIVEWAY TO SOME SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS
AND NORTHEAST PA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CLIPPER/FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15C AT 850MB OVERNIGHT AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL GET SOME MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
GOING FOR PORTIONS OF CNY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIGHT; LESS THAN 1
INCH TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90...BUT PERHAPS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE US-ROUTE 20 CORRIDOR. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT, WITH LOWS 5
TO 15 ABOVE ZERO...VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN THE COLD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA, LEADING TO A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HOLD STEADY, NEAR -16C AT 850MB. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES...WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL
BE SEASONABLE COLD, MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 10S TO MID-20S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD SEE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE NYS
THRUWAY CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. STEADIER SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE DAY AS THERE WILL BE SOME OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. SOME SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN THE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAND TO DRIFT SOUTH
SLIGHTLY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG FAR NORTHERN ONONDAGA
AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE
SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE DAY PRIOR. HOWEVER,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
BOTH DAYS. NIGHTLY TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BACK IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BUT THEN IMPROVE TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AS TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FALL MUCH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
215 PM UPDATE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SOUTH, BRINGING SNOW
SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 IN CNY ON SUNDAY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY EXTEND DOWN INTO NEPA AS WELL. THIS WILL BE ONE OF MANY
WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BE RIDING ALONG A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH EACH SYSTEM,
MAINLY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND. AS WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THERE WILL BE ON-AND-OFF CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS EACH DAY TO START NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP THE
COLD AIR MASS LOCKED IN PLACE WITH A QUICK SURGE OF COLDER AIR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THIS,
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP IS NOT EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 20S AND LOW 30S AND DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
1246 AM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS AT RME AT THE VERY END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD (AFTER 04Z FRIDAY) AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT
WITH 12-18 KT GUSTS RETURNING THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR CLOUD BASES EXPAND OVER CENTRAL NY AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DEVELOP IN A WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW. OCCASIONAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE; ESPECIALLY
SYR AND RME WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR OR KRME, BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR; LATE DAY SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THOUGH.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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