252
FXUS61 KBGM 231957
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
257 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
SEASONABLE AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH
JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY
MONDAY, WITH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RISING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MONDAY FEATURES PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
1220 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY
THE MIDDAY UPDATE. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO BETTER
MATCH OBSERVATIONS, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
945 AM UPDATE...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE,
MAINLY FOR SKY COVER AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
SOME CLEARING OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE.
640 AM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINED OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT; THIS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW
ZERO, WITH MANY LOCATIONS STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA BY MID MORNING, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO NE PA. CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER, AND
PERHAPS MOST OF THE DAY UP TOWARD THE NW FINGER LAKES AND NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR (SYRACUSE TO UTICA). NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
310 AM UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER TODAY, WITH SEASONABLE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO DAYS THOUGH. MORNING
CLOUDS GIVEWAY TO SOME SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS
AND NORTHEAST PA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CLIPPER/FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15C AT 850MB OVERNIGHT AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL GET SOME MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
GOING FOR PORTIONS OF CNY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIGHT; LESS THAN 1
INCH TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90...BUT PERHAPS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE US-ROUTE 20 CORRIDOR. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT, WITH LOWS 5
TO 15 ABOVE ZERO...VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN THE COLD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA, LEADING TO A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HOLD STEADY, NEAR -16C AT 850MB. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES...WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL
BE SEASONABLE COLD, MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 10S TO MID-20S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD SEE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
235 PM UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL NY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 AND FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
255 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY, HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY.
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT IS
CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
1225 PM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SWING SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BAND PASSING
THROUGH SYR AND RME BEGINNING AT 09Z. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH WITH SNOW LASTING FOR ABOUT
3-4 HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SNOW ENDS, BUT
CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND MVFR CATEGORY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM, AND WHILE SNOW CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE LOCATIONS DRY.
CURRENT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR ON-AND-OFF SNOW SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SYR
AND RME. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
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