876
FXUS61 KBGM 232000
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
255 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING,
BUT WILL DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING,
THE BAND WILL BE ORIENTED OVER THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THE
PASSING OF A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, FLOW WILL SHIFT BACK
OUT OF THE WEST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW TO DRIFT
NORTH. THIS TROUGH COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL, BUT THIS BAND WILL HAVE
EXITED THE REGION PRIOR TO SNOW PICKING UP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
1 TO 3 INCHES FROM S. CAYUGA TO ONEIDA COUNTY, THOUGH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTED TOTALS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO NO HAZARDS WERE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD,
THE COUNTIES THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WERE HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS TONIGHT.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES WHERE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY BLENDING IN THE NBM TENTH
PERCENTILE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. AFTER A CHILLY START, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY. WITH THE TROUGH DROPPING IN
OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR LEADING TO LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
235 PM UPDATE...
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL NY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 AND FROM THE TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
255 PM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY, HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY.
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO WATCH NEXT WEEK AS AN ARCTIC FRONT IS
CROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
1225 PM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SWING SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BAND PASSING
THROUGH SYR AND RME BEGINNING AT 09Z. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH WITH SNOW LASTING FOR ABOUT
3-4 HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SNOW ENDS, BUT
CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND MVFR CATEGORY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM, AND WHILE SNOW CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE LOCATIONS DRY.
CURRENT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR ON-AND-OFF SNOW SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SYR
AND RME. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...DK/MPK
LONG TERM...DK/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
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