156
FXUS61 KBGM 162030
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING, CHANGING TO
RAIN SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZE, STRONG
WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR
FILTERS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
HIGH WINDS LIKELY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
130 PM UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE WITH THE COLD AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
CAUSE ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TO TURN OVER TO SNOW AND ALSO FOR
WET ROADS AND SURFACES TO FREEZE OVER. CONSIDERING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE
TO THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL. WILL EVALUATE THINGS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND ISSUE A SHORT FUSE ADVISORY IF
NECESSARY.
11 AM UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE NEXT ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING, THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM. BIG CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE WAS ADDING MORE SNOW FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND STEUBEN COUNTY. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF PITTSBURGH, PA AND
IT WILL TRACK NE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL NY.
THIS LOW CENTER IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO COLD AIR WILL LIKELY START PUSHING IN A LITTLE
FASTER FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN CWA, WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALSO, THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN MAY CAUSE FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS AND THIS WILL ALSO BE ASSESSED IN DETERMINING IF
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
9 AM UPDATE...
ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NE PA EXPIRE AT
9 AM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. EXTENDED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NY THAT WERE SET TO
EXPIRE AT 9 AM UNTIL 11 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS AS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE ONLY A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD WHERE TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE FREEZING. COLDER
AIR WILL THEN WRAP IN AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND MORE SNOW IS GOING
TO BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST. ANOTHER ADVISORY OR A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY AND SURFACES REFREEZE.
645 AM UPDATE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
SUCH AS ELMIRA NY, AVOCA-SCRANTON- WILKESBARRE NOW ABOVE
FREEZING. DOWNTOWN BINGHAMTON WEST TO JOHNSON CITY AND ENDICOTT
ARE NOW HOVERING RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK AND SHOULD RISE
ABOVE SHORTLY HERE. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 32 THE FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WILL BE ENDING. THE ICING THREAT LOOKS TO END FROM
SW TO NE LATER THIS MORNING; BUT IT WILL HOLD ON IN ISOLATED
POCKETS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF I-81. UP ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY MAKE IT TO, OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING BEFORE THE STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS DROPPING READINGS
AGAIN THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
AREAWIDE UNTIL 9 AM, AND AREAS EAST OF I-81 UNTIL 1 PM...A
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ONEIDA COUNTY UNTIL 7
PM THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING AND SLEET FOR TODAY.
5 AM UPDATE
VERY ACTIVE, HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED IN THE
NEAR TERM PERIOD. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY, TRACKING INTO WESTERN PA BY MID-MORNING, THEN
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN DOWN AROUND 980MB THIS AFTERNOON, AND 975MB BY THE
TIME IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE THIS MORNING, AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF I-81; ONEIDA COUNTY IS UNDER A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, AND ESPECIALLY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN ABOUT 2PM AND 6 PM, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
20S WITH ANY WET SURFACES QUICKLY FREEZING INTO ICE. ALSO,
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP VERY QUICKLY, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG, POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
AREAWIDE THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING.
ALSO BEHIND THIS ARCTIC FRONT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER CNY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-20. AS THE WINDS PICK UP, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 10S AND THE SNOW STARTS TO ACCUMULATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES MORE
CONCENTRATED AND INTENSE ON MONDAY AS THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
WITH LAKE SUPERIOR, HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY COMMENCES. A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES STARTING AT 7 PM THIS EVENING. ONONDAGA AND
MADISON'S LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN THE LAKE SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH, JUST
OUT OF THESE TWO COUNTIES....MEANWHILE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ONEIDA COUNTY ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY: MAIN CONCERN IS THE ONGOING FREEZING RAIN, ICING AND
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COLDER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING. NORTH AND EAST OF BINGHAMTON IT IS STILL IN THE LOW TI
MID 20S ACROSS OTSEGO, MADISON, ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. A
HEAVIER BATCH OF FREEZING RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, AND MUCH OF THIS WILL ACCRETE AS
ICE ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS, SURFACE, TREES AND
POWERLINES. MUCH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE BETWEEN ONE TENTH
AND FOUR- TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION THIS MORNING..WITH
PERHAPS AROUND A HALF INCH OF ICE IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED COLDER COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES DO EVENTUALLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING, BY MID TO LATE MORNING...OR EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST OF I-81 IN THE CATSKILLS. TEMPERATURES EVEN GET WELL INTO
THE 40S FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO NE PA THE COLD AIR GETS
SCOURED OUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT
INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S FOR HIGH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90
THOUGH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH BEFORE SUNSET. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, ALSO BE AWARE OF RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND A POTENTIAL FLASH FREEZE OF WET OR SLUSHY SURFACES THIS
EVENING.
TONIGHT: MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE STRONG, GUSTY, POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. NW WINDS WILL BE 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 45-55 MPH;
A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 60 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS, BLOWING
SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF CNY. FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND NE PA IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY,
BLUSTERY AND COLD WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LOOKS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING RIGHT ACROSS THE SYRACUSE METRO
AREA...WHERE 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN 10S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT, WITH WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO EXPECTED.
MONDAY: LAKE EFFECT SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES AND STRONG POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA IN THE
MORNING, EXTENDING EAST NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF UTICA. OUTSIDE OF
THE MAIN BAND ADDITION SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL STILL BE
AROUND. THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA, MADISON AND CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, OUT OF
ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES AND INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSIDE THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND,
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE...AND THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD
OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THIS IS SOMETHING WE ARE
MONITORING CLOSELY AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SNOW INTENSITY
AND STRONG WINDS COMBINING TOGETHER FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIME BLIZZARD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
TWIN TIERS AND NE PA ITS ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY, BLUSTERY AND
FRIGID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 10S TO MID-20S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
325 PM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS -21C WESTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT A BAND EXTENDING ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES. THIS BAND WILL BE PART OF A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION THAT
EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND PUSH THIS BAND SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND THE MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL BE CUT OFF. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SNOW WILL BE LIGHTER. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BOTH DAYS.
LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BLUSTERY FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY THOUGH WINDS
WILL BECOME GRADUALLY CALMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
STRONG WINDS PRESENT, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
325 PM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW UP THE EAST COAST AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES DELMARVA THURSDAY
MORNING, IT BEGINS TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA LEADING TO A LESS FAVORABLE
TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR REGION. STILL, SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FOLLOWING
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF CNY. POPS WERE ADDED
TO THE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF CANADIAN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
NBM. THE WEEKEND BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH SOME HAVING LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS,
BUT THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE DRIER SOLUTION OF THE NBM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 30S
FOR HIGHS RETURNING BY SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT WARM UP AS
MUCH AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT BARRELS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT CEILINGS ARE IFR OR LOWER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE AREA, HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT CIGS
WILL MIX OUT AND LIFT SOME. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS
SNOW THIS EVENING AND DROP VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES. STEADIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT
SYR AND RME...BRINGING MORE IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS HERE.
LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN SOME LOCATIONS UNTIL WINDS MIX OUT WITH
THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND BECOME
STRONG LATER TONIGHT; TURNING WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 15-25
KTS, GUSTS OVER 40 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME. BLOWING
SNOW ALSO LIKELY AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 40
KNOTS AT TIMES ON MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...MORE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...VFR
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
037.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015-016-022>024.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-037.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ017-018-025-036-
037-044>046-055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ018-036.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM
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